July 22, 2004

DEAD CAT BOUNCE:

Presidential race tied before convention (Susan Page and William Risser, 7/22/04, USA TODAY)

Kerry is at 47% among likely voters, Bush at 46% and independent candidate Ralph Nader at 4%. Among the larger group of registered voters, Kerry is at 47%, Bush at 43% and Nader at 5%.

The survey, taken Monday through Wednesday, spotlights the points Kerry needs to score among the small group of voters who remain open to argument, 17% of the electorate. He needs to convince them that he's a strong leader, that he holds unwavering convictions and that he has a plan for dealing with the war in Iraq.


That 17% will be moved by the improving of the economy and the fading of Iraq far more than by anything Cabana Boy can do. It still looks very much like a race where the incumbent gets to 55 or 56% and carries pretty much every state.

Posted by Orrin Judd at July 22, 2004 6:58 PM
Comments

"Pretty much" every state? Are you backing away from your predictions here?

Posted by: James Haney at July 22, 2004 8:13 PM

Nope. I still think Kerry can carry DC.

Posted by: oj at July 22, 2004 8:54 PM

Let's see where the polls end up after the convention. If Kerry doesn't pull out to a 6-10pt lead or so then either the public really has already made up its mind or Kerry will get swamped when Bush gets going.

Posted by: AWW at July 22, 2004 10:33 PM

Remember, if Kerry gets 45% or more of the popular vote and we get the money together, we get to send Mr. Judd to a destination of our choice.

Posted by: Annoying Old Guy at July 23, 2004 12:39 AM

AOG - while I'd love to send OJ somewhere if Kerry wins (and gets over 45%) I'm going to start hoarding my money before Mr. Taxachusetts can start taking it.

Posted by: AWW at July 23, 2004 8:42 AM

Just a reminder, Mr. Judd will not leave the Eastern Time Zone, and probably will be unwilling to travel much south of Providence, RI...

Posted by: Foos at July 23, 2004 11:54 AM

Someone just told me that someone just told him that someone just told her that, according to a Cabinet Secretary, the plan is not to do much campaigning until the Republican convention and then push an 8 week sprint to the election.

Posted by: David Cohen at July 23, 2004 12:08 PM
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