July 20, 2004
BUT THE DESIGNERS LOVED THE AIRBUS SUPERJUMBO...:
Small and nimble plane makers liven up race for profit (Daniel Solon, July 19, 2004, International Herald Tribune)
The so-called "100-seater" market, which covers jets with roughly 75 to 115 seats, was seen as a hot competitive arena some five years ago. Then came the economic downturn and September 11, cooling off -- or deep-freezing - plans by most airlines to expand fleets.Now a thaw is under way and airlines large and small, full-service network operators and low-cost carriers alike, are taking another look at modernizing their fleets over the next five years or so.
In an era of rising fuel prices and of growing demand for more customized routes that often serve fewer passengers per plane, their plans are putting a new focus on mid-range aircraft.
By some reckonings, the only major new Western commercial hardware on offer at the moment is in this category: the Embraer EMB170, already operating for several airlines on both sides of the Atlantic, and its larger sister, the EMB190, which first flew in March and is scheduled to make its first showcase appearance at Farnborough.
Embraer's new family has been doing well in the marketplace. By the end of last month, 273 aircraft had been ordered and 23 delivered to customers that included US Airways, Alitalia and LOT, leaving a healthy backlog of 250 firm orders.
Important to airline fleet planners, the two models have lightweight airframes and engines, meaning lower operating costs. This is now critical because most network airlines, the classic hub-and-spoke giants, are under enormous financial pressure.
Gary Chase, an analyst at Lehman Brothers, sees little ground for optimism about most U.S. network carriers this year and in 2005 because "balance sheets are under continued stress."
This is bad news for manufacturers of larger airliners, because the U.S. market traditionally accounts for about 40 per cent of world airline traffic.
...why don't the proposed users?
MORE:
-For Airbus and Boeing, a slugfest over future (Mark Landler, 7/20/04, NYTimes)
Kind of a half-baked analysis.
It's true that it's getting harder and harder to fill big planes, because the network is being subdivided into smaller and smaller segments.
Downsizing the planes, however, does not upsize the airports. There's a shortage of gates at most destinations where it may be possible to earn a profit.
Adding new gates is expensive, even when possible.
Posted by: Harry Eagar at July 20, 2004 2:49 PMThe market for the jumbos is now almost entirely in Asia, with some in the Middle East. Those routes can be filled, but another SARs outbreak looms. The US domestic market will probably buy a lot of the 7E7s, but not until the financials are better (i.e., a couple of the big airlines are gone). The smaller jets aren't that bad, but they are uncomfortable for flights of over an hour. I like the Embraer model with a single row on one side and two rows on the other side. Some of the Canadiar jets put the window down by the passenger's hip, meaning an almost instant neckache to see anything outside.
Posted by: jim hamlen at July 20, 2004 3:17 PMI thought the Bae 146 was cool. It didn't even need runways.
Posted by: Harry Eagar at July 20, 2004 9:31 PM