July 22, 2004
BLUE BATTLEGROUND:
Bush/Cheney Lead The Way In Ohio (CPOD, Jul. 22, 2004)
The Republican ticket of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney could carry the state of Ohio in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by Strategic Vision. 48 per cent of respondents would vote for the incumbents, while 43 per cent would support Democratic challengers John Kerry and John Edwards. [...]Source: Strategic Vision
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 801 likely Ohio voters, conducted from Jul. 17 to Jul. 19, 2004. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
The media has been pretty careful not to poll down to likely voters, because they'd rob their story of any drama. Posted by Orrin Judd at July 22, 2004 1:42 PM
RealClearpolitics has a nice section on state polls. Looking at this section 3 things come to mind a) polls seemed to move Kerry's way in June/July which may simply reflect pre-VP and pre-convention buzz, b) Zogby consistently is more pro-Kerry (lower Bush plus margin, higher Kerry plus margin, or Kerry vs Bush) compared to other polls, and c) it would take a major shift to get states like CA, NY, NJ into Bush's camp given Kerry's double digit leads there.
If Bush wins the same 30 states as in 2000 he'll win by about 11 electoral votes. Of those 30 OH, Missouri, and Florida, and NH look questionable right now. On the other hand WI, MN, IA, and PA look questionable for Kerry.