July 13, 2004

BITTER BUNKER:

Empty Office Adds to Sense of Isolation at the C.I.A. (DOUGLAS JEHL, 7/13/04, NY Times)

[A]fter last week's Senate report, which lambasted the C.I.A. in particular for misjudgments related to prewar intelligence on Iraq, the mood at the agency has turned dark and bitter, current and former officials said in telephone conversations on Monday. Many said they were waiting for the next shoe to drop.

On a wooded campus surrounded by high-security fences, the C.I.A. headquarters has always been geographically isolated from the rest of government. Its empty hallways and closed doors reinforce that isolation, as does its nominal mission: to provide independent, unbiased information in a political, policy-driven town.

This reporter did not visit the C.I.A.'s headquarters on Monday; such visits are rarely permitted, and only by appointment.

On Monday, that environment only seemed to have compounded what one official described as a sense of being besieged.

"C.I.A. officials know very well that criticism comes with the territory,'' one intelligence official said. "But it is frustrating to always be the meat in the sandwich, particularly in an election year.'' In staff meetings on Monday, the official said, Mr. McLaughlin made references to criticism "some of it deserved, but much of it not.''

Still, the official said, Mr. McLaughlin's message was "to keep their chin up and press ahead, like the intelligence officials they are.''


So, they've been proven grotesquely incompetent once again and been caught--in the Palme affair--running covert operations against the President, but they're bitter? Shut them down, implode the building and salt the earth.

Posted by Orrin Judd at July 13, 2004 9:41 AM
Comments

Its the old horse race bettor’s problem. The odds on favorite to win is most likley to win and least likely to make you money. The way to make money is to bet against the crowd, but only when you are actually smarter than they are. The same is true in the stock market.

The politicians (now there is a group of outside-the-box-thinkers) are blaming the CIA for overestimating Saddam Hussein and for underestimating Osama. The CIA is like the crowd at the track. They pick the favorites. AND NO CONCEIVABLE GOVERNMENTAL BUREAUCRACY WILL EVER BE ANY DIFFERENT.

Prediction Markets cannot solve the CIA problem, They can broaden the consensus, but it will still be a consensus. Case in point. The CIA consistently overestimated the economic and military strength of the Soviet Union. The only experts who saw a chink in the Soviet armor were demographers Murray Feshbach and Nicholas Eberstadt.

Cassandra was always right and no one ever believed her. If Cassandra had access to the NYSE, she could have retired rich, but she will not alter the consensus, which she will always oppose. But, the CIA or any similar bureaucracy will always spit her out (“not a team player”).

There you have it, a problem, not a solution. A contradiction in terms, a logical impossibility.

Posted by: Robert Schwartz at July 13, 2004 7:07 PM

Paging Jack Philindros; time to set up the Foreign
Intelligence Service;along the lines that McCarry
sketched out in the Better Angels. using business cover, actually operating out of the regional bases instead of one main heaquarters. Watch out for any liberal Yale brahmin clan; like the Hubbards.

Posted by: narciso at July 13, 2004 7:13 PM

Mr Judd, when you advocate killing off the CIA you soud like th most rabid of America-hating Chomskite MArxists. You're kinda freaking me out.

Posted by: Polaris at July 13, 2004 7:33 PM

Even America-hating Chomskyite Marxists are right on occassion.

Posted by: oj at July 13, 2004 7:56 PM
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