50-0 FILES:

Give Me a D?: Reporters analyzing the election sound more like Kerry cheerleaders. (BRENDAN MINITER, July 13, 2004, Wall Street Journal)

[T]here is mounting evidence that Republicans are successfully making inroads with Hispanics across the country. On several issues--education, religion, taxes--Hispanics naturally find themselves in line with the GOP. The No Child Left Behind Act resonates in the Hispanic community because fewer Latinos between 19-25 have a high school diploma (73%) than blacks (89%) or whites (93%). President Bush won 35% of the Hispanic vote in 2000 (near the 1984 Republican record of 37%), and the Bush campaign can reasonably hope to reach 40% this year.

The Economist quotes Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico, a Democrat and the son of a Mexican immigrant: "The problem with Democrats is that sometimes they take our people for granted." New Mexico's population is 43% Hispanic, and Mr. Gore won the state by only 366 votes. Hispanics are also key voters in Iowa, Nevada, Oregon and Washington state--all close states last time out.

In Pennsylvania--another state Mr. Gore won narrowly--Mr. Kerry's problem may prove to be his insistence on raising taxes--or, as he puts it, "repealing" Mr. Bush's tax cuts for the "wealthy." Gov. Ed Rendell, a Democrat, these days looks more like a supply-sider than a tax-and-spend liberal. Since his election two years ago, he hasn't resorted to class warfare policies, à la Kerry-Edwards, to revive the economy. Instead of looking to soak the rich, Mr. Rendell increased income taxes only slightly--being careful to keep Pennsylvania competitive with neighboring New York and New Jersey--and is now in the process of cutting property taxes. He has also been working hard to persuade businesses to relocate to Pennsylvania by arguing that it will remain a tax-friendly state.

Although Maryland isn't seen as competitive, national Democrats might want to take a look at the Old Line State. This is a blue state that is starting to blush a little red. Republican Robert Ehrlich defeated Kathleen Kennedy Townsend for the governor's mansion two years ago, partly on a limited-tax platform. And earlier this year the tax-and-spend wing of the Democratic Party tried rolling out a tax increase modeled after Mr. Kerry's proposals. The plan was to close a projected state budget gap by increasing income taxes on the "wealthy." Democratic legislators retreated under pressure, however, and then abandoned plans to reconvene this summer to try again when it became clear that the growing economy would bring in enough taxes to all but erase the deficit. Given this recent history, on election night look for Mr. Bush to do surprisingly well in Maryland.

None of this is to say that Mr. Bush can count on easy re-election.

No, that's a function of the economy, not political trends.

Posted by Orrin Judd at July 13, 2004 11:38 AM