June 28, 2004

WORTHY CANADIAN ELECTION

Minority looms with today's vote: Leaders end six-week campaign (Norma Greenaway, CanWest News Service, 6/28/04)

Recent polls put the Liberals in a dead heat with the Conservatives, although the final seat projections from Barry Kay, a political scientist at Wilfrid Laurier University, based on previously published polls, suggest the Tories would win the most seats at 115, compared to 108 for the Liberals, 59 for the Bloc Quebecois and 26 for the NDP.

Dr. Kay's regional breakdowns give Atlantic Canada to the Liberals, who are projected to win 17 seats, to 11 for the Conservatives and four for the NDP. In Quebec, the Liberals are now projected to take 16 seats and the Bloc 59, a two-seat Liberal improvement from Dr. Kay's last projections.

In Ontario, the Liberals are projected to take 57 seats, to 40 for the Tories and nine for the NDP.

We tease Canada quite a bit around here because, well, what else can you do with it? But if final results are anything like what the polls now project, this will be a watershed election. Not only because the new Conservative party will have shown itself to be a real force, but because it will have shown itself to be a force in Ontario. This would be something like if the Republicans took more than 40% of the Massachusetts congressional delegation (current count: 0).

The problem for Canada's friends is worry over the price the Bloc Quebecois will extract for a vote establishing the coming minority government. A risk-taker, finding himself head of a conservative party with the most seats in Parliment might well sit out that bidding war, force the Bloc to sell its votes cheaply (much better for the nation) and bet that a minority Liberal government will continue to annoy the electorate during the short time before the wheels come off.

I must confess, though, that my typically shallow analysis is, when the subject is Canada, joined to a proud ignorace. I will be very interested in what actual Canadians think about this election.

MORE: I meant to post only that the election results can be followed at the CBC and the National Post, when the following poll, on the National Post homepage caught my eye:

With the nation gearing up for Canada Day, what uniquely 'Canadian' aspect do you think is most worthy of celebration?
Universal healthcare
Cultural diversity
Hockey
Beer
Poutine
Sometimes, I suspect that the real answer is "Yanking Yankee Chain". (The current leader, at better than 90%, is "Hockey.")

Posted by David Cohen at June 28, 2004 1:15 PM
Comments

I'm curious to see how well the pre-electon polling matches with the actual results. Yes, I know that there are huge differences, but these are the same companies using the same techniques who do polling south of the border, and so it might help explain why the results here seem to be all over the place.

If they can't get this election right, then what confidence can I have in them for the big one this fall?

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at June 28, 2004 1:48 PM

hi there.

i up in the far north mackenzie delta anyway the best thing for canada is a government who goes about to destroy the one party rule ie the liberals who have dominated canada over the last 40+ years. to do this harper needs the cooperation of the two "seperatist" provinces alberta and quebec in order to decentralize the canada put power to the provinces; more decmoracy did you know that the prime minister can appoint senators, cabinet members, ambassadors; head of government agenices, etc without any one elses input; we've have a 'benign' dictatorship. also the politicans needs to rein the courts by using the ;not-withstanding clause' of the constitution which will hopefully stop the courts making laws that only the extreme left down there can only dream of. the liberals ran a campaign of fear and loathing something that only hunter s thompson could dream of; though i'm not hopeful that is will not succeed as a the view of a lot of people up here is that 'no change' is good.

anyway we can only hope.

Posted by: patrick at June 28, 2004 1:48 PM

Do these poll results reflect Michael Moore's call for Canadians to reject the conservatives? A conservative win might be a nice little slap at Moore.

Posted by: AWW at June 28, 2004 2:05 PM

Patrick: Thanks. I still wonder whether getting into bed with the BQ is worth it. Is the risk to the nation offset by the chance (not the certainty) of getting some reform before the minority government falls?

Posted by: David Cohen at June 28, 2004 2:12 PM

david

good point but then i always thought the real political change comes through a 'crisis' not through 'normalcy'. we're now told that everything is frozen in time now and forever since repatriation and the various supple changes since then. the aim has been to allow a veto by a minority in quebec 'the federalists' on political change over the entire country since it they who 'profit' from the dream of seperation. we're held hostage to their interests it's not the seperatists i worry about but the quebec federalists as it is they who have strangled canadian democracy; federalism and the political and economic power of the west. it is they through the perverted quotas and other formulaitons such a bilingualism have prospered. our benign dictatorship can in many ways only be broken up and democracy return with the help of the seperatists.

regards.

Posted by: patrick at June 28, 2004 2:58 PM

Really picky, but shouldn't it be "Worthwhile Canadian Election"? IIRC, the original most boring headline ever was "Worthwhile Canadian Initiative."

But "Worthy" is dull as ditch-ice, too.

Posted by: Casey Abell at June 28, 2004 3:31 PM

But you don't think this Canadian election really is worthy, do you? The only purpose of Canadian elections is to remind us sheerly boring life can be.

Posted by: Casey Abell at June 28, 2004 3:41 PM

Casey: I think you are right that the original headline started "Worthwhile", but I still think "Worthy" is more eye-glazingly dull, as it has just a touch more pomposity.

I do think that this is an important election, for Canada and for us. (The closest I've ever come before to an opinion on Canadian policy is a wish, as I commute back and forth on I-91, that Quebec had more stringent truck safety laws.) All other things equal, I'd rather our major trading partner, next door neighbor and military ally had a vibrant, free market economy; a strong western culture; and better reasons to be optimistic.

Posted by: David Cohen at June 28, 2004 3:46 PM

I think Damian Penny is covering this, probably also Colby Cosh.

Posted by: Sandy P at June 28, 2004 4:13 PM

Down here in Texas, Canada is a rumor...a very dull rumor. But I'll take your word that you're honestly interested in this election.

Some Googling revealed that Michael Kinsley first proclaimed "Worthwhile Canadian Initiative" to be the dullest headline ever. Some columnist named Flora Lewis - a worthwhile Canadian columnist herself? - actually used this headline with an apparently straight and undoubtedly very dull face.

Which got me thinking...dangerous, I know. What would be the more attention-grabbing three-word headline ever? I thought of "Britney Strips Moore" for complete, livid horror.

Posted by: Casey Abell at June 28, 2004 4:14 PM

"He's just such a hunk. I had to do it. Maybe I'll do it again."

That's how pop diva Britney Spears described her public stripping of ducumentary filmmaker Michael Moore. Moore was autographing copies of his latest book, "Pop Divas and Me" at a local Borders bookstore when Spears approached and tore off all his clothes.

Witnesses who were able to stifle severe vomiting recounted that Spears appeared delighted with her work.

"Just look at that...well, look at it all!" she gushed.

The Borders store is now being decontaminated.

Rumors of the stripping spread throughout the entire metropolitan area. Due to extensive public nausea, martial law has been declared.

The most severely affected victims have been evacuated to hospitals outside a hundred-mile radius of the bookstore.

Posted by: Casey Abell at June 28, 2004 4:33 PM

"Down here in Texas, Canada is a rumor...a very dull rumor"

You must be in North Texas,down here(in the real Texas)Canada isn't a rumor,it's mythology.

Posted by: at June 28, 2004 4:47 PM

Maximalist performance art, eh?

I guess that makes Britney a genuine artiste. Who knew?

Posted by: Barry Meislin at June 28, 2004 5:09 PM

Patrick,

The Mackenzie river delta as in where the Mackenzie river empties into the Arctic ocean? That would have to make you one of the most remotely situated human beings on the face of the planet! Why, even most Canadians would be apalled by how far north you live. That's amazing. I saw a post once from someone claiming to be from Yellowknife, but Yellowknife has got to seem like the deep south to you.

Posted by: djs at June 28, 2004 5:24 PM

Here I thought I was going to get informative Canadian election commentary, but all I learned was Casey's Britney fantasy.

Posted by: pj at June 28, 2004 5:48 PM

djs.

thought the weird thing is we're suffering through a heat wave 90/100 degrees and 24 hr sun better than minus 40 and no sun in decmeber. the other thing is that we sit on more natural gas than god or alaska and hopefully over then next few years the pipeline will wind 2500 km south to alberta and onwards to usa.

still it fun to look 'down' on 'down there

Posted by: patrick at June 28, 2004 6:12 PM

If I have to choose between a Canadian election and just about ANY fantasy, it ain't tough.

Posted by: Casey Abell at June 28, 2004 8:44 PM

Just got back from voting. Boy, there is nothing like a trip to a polling station to shake one's faith in democracy.

If this pans out as predicted, it is a great accomplishment for the Conservatives, who after all didn't exist a year ago. And they really are a conservative party as opposed to their now-defunct namesake. But it will be them against three leftist parties, so I'll bet we vote again within the year. There will be lots of strategic excitement, but the policy front is tough to call. On policy, the election was a huge and frustrating disappointment with everyone doing everything to trash the other guy and avoid saying what he stands for.

It was fun in the last week watching all the fear-mongering when everyone realized they were for real. At the beginning of the week the fear was the Conservatives would take away women's abortion rights. By the end there was panic they would take away their shoes. Unfortunately a few loose cannons in the party shot off their mouths and did trigger some concern in the mainstream and a slight downturn. Stupid, stupid party.

The big issue will be whether they can grow and where. There will be a rush to sign up big name talent and Harper will presumably have the momentum. I wouldn't worry too much about devil's pacts with the BQ at this point. That is all in a days work up here, where we've had separatist forces here and there at work since 1867, and the BQ knows very well why they were sent to Ottawa. It wasn't to separate.

Posted by: Peter B at June 28, 2004 9:21 PM

The spin right now at the CBC and National Post, see links provided, is that the Liberals are doing better than expected in the East and have a fighting chance at a majority. I have no idea if that's right.

Posted by: David Cohen at June 28, 2004 10:24 PM

Right now, it looks like the House of Commons is going to be evenly divided, since, with only 1 seat left to be counted as of 2 hours ago, the Liberals and NDP together could only amass 154 seats - exactly half - and the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois had 153. As pointed out elsewhere, the Speaker has to give up his vote (unlike U.S. practice), so if the last seat goes to either BQ or Conservatives, a Liberal-NDP coalition will actually be in the minority. Look for another election soon.

Posted by: Joe at June 29, 2004 5:26 AM

David:

Re: "Yanking Yankee Chain"

The correct phrase is "Ruffling the Eagle's Feathers", an amusing parlour game invented by Canadian liberals, who were inspired by "Twisting the Lion's Tail", which was played by their grandparents.

Posted by: Peter B at June 29, 2004 7:18 AM
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