June 16, 2004
WINNING THE WoT:
When Trade Leads to Tolerance: Embracing free-trade agreements with moderate Arab states is a powerful way to foster democracy. (ROBERT B. ZOELLICK, 6/12/04, NY Times)
Moderate Arab states like Morocco are reclaiming the ideas of an Islamic golden age when a vibrant culture allowed young scholars to explore the frontiers of knowledge and commerce thrived. Their reformist and tolerant vision of Islam includes free parliamentary elections, the sale of state-owned businesses, the encouragement of foreign investment that can be connected to broad-based development, and better protection of the rights of women and workers.In Morocco, Jordan, Bahrain and elsewhere, young leaders are struggling for the soul of Islam. It is a battle of leaders who embrace tolerance against extremists who thrive on hatred. It is a conflict of economic reformers against those who fear modernization because it threatens their power to intimidate. And it is a contest of those who welcome closer ties with the West against those who see us as an enemy.
America's strategic interest in the outcome of this struggle is immense, but our ability to influence it is limited. From the Middle East to Southeast Asia, only fellow Muslims can lead their brothers and sisters to a better Islamic future. But the United States is not without influence. Through free-trade agreements, for example, we can embrace reforming states, encouraging their transformation and bolstering their chances for success even as we open new markets for American goods and services.
The free-trade agreement with Jordan enacted in 2001 was the first step. Closer trade ties and the removal of tariffs have resulted in a 197 percent increase in two-way trade and have drawn foreign investment to Jordan, including knowledge and entrepreneurial industries like pharmaceuticals and software. The Jordanians estimate that expanded trade has helped to create some 35,000 jobs. Jordan has also forged closer economic ties with Israel, our first free-trade partner.
To capitalize on this new interest in combining modernity with the Muslim world, President Bush outlined a plan last year to achieve a Middle East Free Trade Area. Now Morocco in the Maghreb is joining with Jordan by signing a free-trade agreement with the United States. Following fast, the United States and Bahrain just concluded free trade negotiations a few weeks ago, and we look forward to signing that agreement next.
These leaders have inspired the interest of others. The United States has now signed trade facilitation framework agreements with eight other Arab countries, from Algeria to Yemen, as a preliminary step toward free trade. Piece by piece, the administration is building a mosaic of modernizers with a plan that offers trade and openness as tools for Muslim leaders looking toward the rebirth of an optimistic and tolerant Islam.
Given that Senator Kerry opposes democracy in the Middle East and capitalism at home, there seems no chance he'd support such free trade agreements. Posted by Orrin Judd at June 16, 2004 8:23 AM
Free trade is good in and of itself, and it can help buttress democracy, but the evidence that it can create democracy is pretty thin.
Posted by: David Cohen at June 16, 2004 8:37 AMIt creates wealth and past a certain level of per capita wealth liberalization follows as regularly as clockwork.
Posted by: oj at June 16, 2004 8:52 AMAs Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Libya, et al. demonstrate. (Did I mention Venezuela? Borneo?)
Posted by: Barry Meislin at June 16, 2004 9:15 AMNone of which have the minimal per capita GDP required. Venezuela for instance is only: $5,400. People think of the oil and think these places are wealthy. They aren't.
Posted by: oj at June 16, 2004 9:45 AMOJ: I agree, the creation of a bourgeousie is the indispensible step in making a liberal democracy stable. Has trade ever created a bourgeousie? Arguably in the Anglosphere, but never in its trading partners.
Posted by: David Cohen at June 16, 2004 10:00 AMSpain, Chile, S. Korea, Taiwan, etc.
Posted by: oj at June 16, 2004 10:06 AMOJ
If it worked in Taiwan, then are you recommending "free trade" with China?
Posted by: h-man at June 16, 2004 10:25 AMI don't see how trade can be credited with creating a middle class in any of those countries. They're more proof of your theory that a period of authoritarianism is necessary to create a stable liberal democracy.
Posted by: David Cohen at June 16, 2004 11:01 AMNot trade per se but economic liberalization, which free trade agreements force, which creates a middle class invested in stability but eager for power, which allows the authoritarians to back off without worrying about a return to chaos...
Posted by: oj at June 16, 2004 11:16 AMWe have free trade with China.
Posted by: oj at June 16, 2004 11:22 AMThe key is not mean GDP per capita, but median GDP per capita. A few thousand people pumping vast value in oil has minimal real value; the key is widely distributed ownership of productive private property.
Posted by: mike earl at June 16, 2004 1:25 PM