There was a recession in '83.
Federal revenues were $ 17 billion less in '83 than in '82, and expenditures were up.
For instance, there were 22 million Americans on the Food Stamp Programme in '83, which at the time was a record number.

and GDP increased by over 4%

Yeah, in '83 GDP grew by 2.3% after shrinking 1.9% in '82, so really it was just '83's tax revenues that shrank.

However, unemployment peaked nationwide in early '83, at 11.5%.
In some states, unemployment peaked late in '82.
Michigan had an official unemployment rate of 16.3% in Nov. '82; West Virginia had an official rate of 19.5% in Feb. '83.
Those are Great Depression numbers.

Michael:

Not even half and only in isolated cases, not nationwide

Bob Brinker called 100% into the market on 8/13/82, pulled out 1/11/00.

No Hans Brinker he.

What, no rhetorical flourishes are allowed ?

What were "isolated cases" were states with official unemployment rates below 9%, between Oct. '82 and Apr. '83 - There were only fourteen of 'em.

What was the national unemployment rate in 1983? What was it in 1933? And what % of the population was employed at each time.

The Recession of the early-80s was difficult. It was nothing like the Depression.

In mid-May [of 2000], [Bob Brinker of 'Marketimer'] forecast a "bear market rally" and recommended playing it via the Nasdaq 100 Trust. The QQQs rallied sharply thereafter, but the call proved controversial . (Brinker later announced he'd no longer make short-term trading recommendations over the radio.)

Brinker [...] took a bigger stumble in mid-October, when he (again) forecast a "countertrend rally" and recommended buying the QQQs.
[He recommended that aggressive subscribers use up to 50% of their cash reserves for the trade, predicting gains in excess of 20% over a two- to four-month period from the QQQs' Oct. 12 closing low of $75.13.
The QQQs closed at $86.19 on Oct. 23 -- a near 15% gain from the Oct. 12 lows -- but have been in a near uninterrupted descent since...]

In the Jan. 8 issue, the newsletter writer stuck by the October call, forecasting up to 50% gains by the Nasdaq 100 from its Jan. 2 closing low of 2292. That translates into a target of just over $80 for the QQQs, which closed at $53.44 on Jan. 2, or nearly 30% below the original buy target of $75.13, the Oct. 12 closing low. Additionally, Brinker extended the time frame for the rally to three to six months from Jan. 8 vs. two to four months back in October.

Regarding hubris, Brinker's only mention of anything wrong with the October call was an acknowledgement his new price target is "slightly lower than [the] original."

None of that changes the fact Brinker deserves kudos for his "macro" call in January 2000, when he revised a 10-year recommendation that investors be 100% in equities, and suggested they raise as much as 60% cash.(Emphasis added).

By Aaron L. Task