June 16, 2004
WERE HE A PATRIOT, RATHER THAN A PARTISAN:
Go Negative on the Allies (PETER D. FEAVER, 6/15/04, NY Times)
[T]here are a couple of good reasons that the senator's foreign policy pronouncements are long on critique of Mr. Bush and short on everything else.For starters, Mr. Kerry must bridge a very fractious constituency. Polling I did as part of a research project with my Duke University colleagues confirms that unlike Mr. Bush, Mr. Kerry is "off message" with his base on Iraq. Ask Kerry supporters their Iraq views and they respond with positions sometimes diametrically opposed to those of their candidate; by contrast, Bush supporters largely echo the president. Apparently, the only thing that unites Kerry supporters, leaners, and undecideds is hostility to perceived mistakes by President Bush. So the candidate is left with a strategy that largely consists of criticism of his opponent, sometimes fair, sometimes unfair, but always biting.
Beyond the polling problem, Mr. Kerry has a style problem. The assessment of his political record has always been that he is more of a critic than a problem solver. His most important senatorial contributions in foreign policy have been investigations that have criticized conventional wisdom. While these have at times been vital examinations, he still cannot point to any Nunn-Lugar-Kerry or Goldwater-Nichols-Kerry legislation that comes up with a solution instead of just identifying a foreign policy problem.
Mr. Kerry and his team may also be wary of meddling in actual foreign policy, of acting as if he were already in the White House. He's wise to avoid such freelancing, although he skirted dangerously close in the late May speech in which he threw down the gauntlet, challenging Mr. Bush to get more international support for Iraq. By saying, in effect, that if Mr. Bush fails here, then he should not be re-elected, Mr. Kerry opened himself up to the charge that he was making a not very thinly veiled appeal to the allies to continue shirking.
Mr. Kerry could have inoculated himself against this criticism if he had even hinted at his displeasure that the European allies had not stepped up. He can still do so, with a few well-chosen paragraphs repeated over time, taking a stance that would also help his campaign. And since his campaign has already assured us that those leaders respect Mr. Kerry more than they do Mr. Bush, his admonition just might help — or at least clarify that the problem with getting aid from the allies runs deeper than "inadequate Bush diplomacy."
Okay, we all get the reasons to vote against President Bush; is anyone aware of a single reason to vote for Mr. Kerry? Posted by Orrin Judd at June 16, 2004 9:14 PM
Here's a basic assymetry between incumbants and challengers. The incumbent gets to say, "X would not be a good President", something that's true of most of us. The challenger has to say, "Y has been a bad President." Maybe he has, but most everyone is going to have their own opinion, based on four years of experience.
Posted by: David Cohen at June 16, 2004 9:30 PM"You don't have to fall in love, you just have to fall in line."
Posted by: Robert Schwartz at June 16, 2004 11:51 PMMr Feaver states that Kerry's positions on Iraq are disconnected from those of his core supports, and then goes on to suggest....Kerry move even closer to President Bush's positions. Huh?
David, I agree with your comment about assymetry but it only goes so far. Without the boundaries provided by positive positions (this is why you should vote for me), incremental creep towards the opposition's positions in search of the center never stops.
Eventually folks are going to decide they want to vote for the real thing, not the imitation.
Posted by: Chris B at June 17, 2004 8:29 AMSome of the positive numbers in this Gallup poll are interesting, particularly ratings of the USA on terrorism, peace and poverty.
I'm more certain GWB will be re-elected than the current USA election polling indicates when the rubber hits the road.
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A parallel question asked Americans to assess the U.S. role in the world on these same dimensions, and helps to put the public's views of the EU in some context. In every instance, larger percentages of Americans say the United States plays a positive role than say this for the EU.
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Role United States Plays in World Affairs
May 21-23 2004
Positive Negative Neither No opinion
The war against terrorism
69 17 12 2
Growth of the world economy
66 17 14 3
Peace in the world
59 22 18 1
The fight against poverty in the world
57 22 20 1
Protection of the environment
46 31 21 2
There are, however, some interesting differences in the way Americans evaluate the United States and the EU on the various dimensions -- differences that may tell as much about the way Americans view their own country...
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Certainly those polled must have taken GWB into account when responding their opinions.
