June 8, 2004
TWO TO TANGO:
Washington is now free to give up on its East Asian allies (ROBYN LIM, 6/09/04, The Japan Times)
The United States recently announced that it will soon send to Iraq one of the two brigades of the Second Infantry Division (2ID) currently stationed in South Korea. There was virtually no consultation with Seoul, and the Pentagon is making no promises that these troops will ever go back. Now unconfirmed reports suggest that 2ID's remaining brigade may also go to Iraq next year. That would signify the withdrawal of virtually all U.S. ground forces from South Korea. What might all that mean for Japan?It means that the U.S. alliance with South Korea is rapidly dissolving because there is no longer sufficient congruence of strategic interest to sustain it. That does not mean that the U.S.-Japan alliance will meet the same fate. It does mean that Japan will have to contribute more to American security if it wishes to retain the immense benefits of alliance. The U.S. now has much greater strategic latitude than when it was tied down by countervailing Soviet power.
The sound you just heard was butts puckering in foreign offices around the globe at the thought that America might actually expect some help from its putative allies.
MORE:
Pentagon Planning to Withdraw Two Army Divisions From Germany (Barry Schweid, 6/08/04, The Associated Press)
The Pentagon has advised Germany that as part of a global shifting of U.S. military forces, it wants to withdraw its two Army divisions and replace them with fewer, lighter, more mobile troops.Posted by Orrin Judd at June 8, 2004 9:18 PMThe move would represent a significant change in the U.S. military presence in Europe, where American forces stood guard throughout the Cold War against the threat of a land invasion from the Soviet Union. The Pentagon has no intention of abandoning Europe but wants more flexibility in the way it can move Germany-based forces into other parts of the world like the Middle East, U.S. officials have said.
Defense Undersecretary Douglas J. Feith briefed senior German defense and diplomatic officials last week in Germany on the Pentagon thinking about U.S. troops in Germany.
Feith stressed in an interview with The Associated Press on Tuesday that there's been no decision on U.S. troops in Germany. He said, however, that planning was "very far along," and "we are going to share our analysis" with the Germans.
A senior administration official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the near-final Pentagon thinking on the matter was to withdraw the two American divisions.
Ahh, we'll give them the bomb and they'll rewrite their constitution.
Japan has stepped up to the plate, finally, no doubt.
Posted by: Sandy P at June 8, 2004 9:43 PM--There was virtually no consultation with Seoul,--
Rummy told them last November, don't know why it was a surprise.
They're big boys now.
We can read the polls.
Posted by: Sandy P at June 8, 2004 9:44 PMLike I said the Koreans had their chance they could have said: "Please let us send a couple of divisions to Iraq." The Japs got the message. The 7th fleet will be parked between Korea and Japan.
Posted by: Robert Schwartz at June 8, 2004 10:19 PMThat other sound you hear is Harry chortling about something finally dawning at the White House about having enough infantry.
Bush I was a faster learner on that subject than Bush II.
Posted by: Harry Eagar at June 8, 2004 10:24 PMInfantry? We've got 130,000 of the buggers twiddling their thumbs in Iraq. Time to move on.
Posted by: oj at June 8, 2004 11:03 PMIf we actually do pull the vast majority of US troops out of Korea, permanently, that'll be the best geopolitical news I've heard since the Berlin Wall fell.
Posted by: Michael Herdegen at June 8, 2004 11:17 PMThe difference between Japan and the ROK is that Japan hasn't been spending its time protesting and insulting us the whole time.
Posted by: John Thacker at June 9, 2004 1:05 AMThis is news?
Harry:
Dont forget we have a couple of divisions in Germany to move east also.
Posted by: Robert Schwartz at June 9, 2004 10:43 AMRemoving our soldiers/hostages from ROK is a sign that we are going to solve the Nork issue in the 2nd term.
Millitary options were pretty much off the table while our soldier/hostages were camped beneath Nork artillery.
Of course ROK is unhappy,
Posted by: AML at June 9, 2004 2:00 PMI'd say move 'em out, since I have no desire to see us involved in a land campaign in east Asia again.
But the reason we're moving them out is not that we're writing off S. Korea but that we're out of infantry and unwilling to pay what it takes to get it.
We've been here before -- in 1939, 1946, 1950, 1964, 1991. When will we ever learn?
I'd have thought, Orrin, that you'd have a softer spot for the S. Koreans, who are the only likely candidate group in east or south Asia for conversion to Christianity.
Posted by: Harry Eagar at June 9, 2004 5:07 PMHarry, Harry, Harry. Surely the fact that the South Koreans have been begging us to leave and blaming us for the lack of reunification, and everything else, since the Kim Dae Jung administration (and before W., during Clinton's presidency as well) has a lot to do with it. We've been planning to move out of Yongsam for a long time.
We were talking of withdrawing some troops long before we went into Iraq. This is a convenient excuse for something that should have been done long ago.
South Korea is rich, and doesn't want us there, except when we're leaving. If we have fewer troops, they won't be able to blame us so much. They just might have to grow up.
Posted by: John Thacker at June 9, 2004 5:41 PMHarry:
Rather the point is we have so much too much infantry we can be profligate with it, leaving them scattered across the globe.
http://www.militarycity.com/map/
Korea already modernized and is now on the downslope, a la Japan--its best days are behind it.
Posted by: oj at June 9, 2004 5:42 PMJohn:
You can't teach an old dog.... Harry thinks the next war will be like WWII.
Posted by: oj at June 9, 2004 5:51 PMIt might. Even if not, you still need somebody to police the rubble.
The So. Koreans, or a good many of them, are more interested in a unified homeland than they are in what political system it would then run under.
In that respect, they are very like the So. Vietnamese.
Posted by: Harry Eagar at June 9, 2004 7:27 PM"The So. Koreans, or a good many of them, are more interested in a unified homeland than they are in what political system it would then run under."
Perhaps. And if you're right, then our troops have no business being there, yes? Independent of any need for infantry elsewhere.
Posted by: John Thacker at June 9, 2004 8:41 PMThe Koreans really hate the fact that their country is divided. But too many of them use the US and our troops as a scapegoat, while still secretly not wanting to unify due to the awfulness of the DPRK regime, which they know (and the fear of the expense of bringing up the North's standard of living). I think that without our troops, they'll have to decide what they want to do without being able to hide.
Posted by: John Thacker at June 9, 2004 8:43 PMTo argue with myself, though, Seoul does have a legitimate divergence of interest with Japan and the US. To Japan and the US, a DPRK nuclear device greatly magnifies the risk to our own civilians. Seoul is toast in the case of a war anyway; a Nork nuclear device doesn't make things much worse. So the South doesn't care about stopping the nuclear program if it will risk war, while the US and Japan have naturally different interests.
Posted by: John Thacker at June 9, 2004 8:45 PMSandy P.;
Give Japan the bomb? The most important thing in building a nuclear device is precision engineering (the theory is actually quite simple). The only reason Japan doesn't have nuclear weapons is that they haven't tried to build them. Japan hardly needs us to tell them how to build one.
Posted by: Annoying Old Guy at June 9, 2004 9:46 PMTrue, guy. Japan is full of nuclear reactors.
Orrin, there were 17 million Vietnamese in the south, 55 million in the north. How many boat people?
If the commies had had sense enough to conciliate instead of jailing and excluding the defeated, there wouldn't have been enough boat people to fill the Staten Island ferry.
Posted by: Harry Eagar at June 10, 2004 3:01 PMHarry:
At least one million, which makes the Vietnamese the most communism averse people on record.
Posted by: oj at June 10, 2004 4:39 PMThey came to it rather late, no?
Posted by: Harry Eagar at June 11, 2004 2:43 AMThe 1940s? You haven't come to it yet. They win.
Posted by: oj at June 11, 2004 8:28 AM