June 28, 2004
THREATENED THE BLACK KNIGHT:
Unearthing the bombers: Weakened Palestinians vow revenge (Greg Myre, June 28, 2004, NY Times)
Mass Palestinian funerals and ominous warnings of future attacks have been fixtures throughout the past four years of Mideast violence. And with great regularity, the Palestinians have delivered on those threats, often within days.But over the past few months, the Palestinians have been repeatedly thwarted in their attempts to unleash a threatened "earthquake" against Israel.
Israel's operation on Saturday killed three senior leaders of Palestinian factions responsible for much of the anti-Israeli violence. It was the latest in a series of raids that have eliminated Palestinians on Israel's most-wanted list, including the leader of Hamas, Sheik Ahmed Yassin.
Yet the Palestinians have not carried out a suicide bombing in three and a half months, the longest stretch between such attacks since the violence began in September 2000. No Israeli civilian has been killed since the shootings of a woman and her four daughters in the Gaza Strip on May 2.
Palestinians are still attempting attacks, and Israel attributes the relative calm to a combination of factors, including good intelligence, its West Bank separation fence and simple luck. Palestinian factions acknowledge they have been weakened, but say they will strike back.
It was inevitable that the movement would lose steam once Israel started unilaterally creating a Palestinian state. That's obviously not what the militants are fighting for, but it is what they've said they want. Why kill yourself for something someone's handing you? Posted by Orrin Judd at June 28, 2004 9:08 AM
"Good intelligence" being a euphamism for Palestinian assistance. As Arafat is one of the big winners here, it would be interesting to know where this "intelligence" is coming from.
Posted by: David Cohen at June 28, 2004 9:21 AMHow is Arafat a winner here? He seems to be the last guy in the world who has wanted a Palestinian state. His big thing has been "right of return," which is really "the destruction of Israel." That is not on the horizon. So what is Arafat winning? It seems to me that Arafat is being deftly pushed aside by history -- history that Israel is mostly controlling.
Posted by: EO at June 28, 2004 9:48 AMArafat is "winning" the deaths of anyone who could be a plausible political rival to him.
My take on Arafat is that, in addition to being a murderer and terrorist, he is an opportunist. The Intifada was not his idea or his doing, but once it became popular, he got on board. The same is true of suicide bombings. I think for his own purposes, he would rather be the dictator of a rump Palestine, but he's not going to take any risks to make that happen.
Posted by: David Cohen at June 28, 2004 9:54 AMWhat is the average time on the job for your typical "senior Palestinian official" nowadays, about 3 weeks?
Posted by: Robert Duquette at June 28, 2004 1:24 PMArafat is the big loser, not the big winner.
Posted by: AML at June 28, 2004 2:15 PMAML: How? At a minimum, the Israelis aren't killing him.
Posted by: David Cohen at June 28, 2004 2:34 PMBut the terrorists haven't stopped trying. Having or not having a state will not really affect them or their recruiting. The only thing that will matter is when "moderate" Arabs start killing the nut-cases.
Posted by: jim hamlen at June 28, 2004 11:24 PMHavcen't stopped trying? What state have they so much as tried taking over? It would be great for us if they took one, because we could just annihilate them.
Posted by: oj at June 28, 2004 11:51 PMThey are still trying to get in - and just yesterday, there were rockets launched over the fence at Gaza which killed a 3-year old. Of course a "state" would make it easier, but we know they don't want it.
As for annihilation, we should just bomb a few of their crispy car swarms. Solitude would then be common practice and terrorism would be further weakened.
Posted by: jim hamlen at June 29, 2004 2:04 PM