June 8, 2004

SO FOLD THE FROGS:

Agreed at last: America and Britain have reached a compromise with France over the role of foreign troops in Iraq after the handover of power, paving the way for the UN Security Council to authorise the troops to stay for as long as they are needed (The Economist, Jun 8th 2004)

MAYBE it was the spirit of wartime co-operation that was rekindled at last weekend’s commemorations of the 60th anniversary of D-Day, when President George Bush and his French counterpart, Jacques Chirac, stood side by side. Whatever the reason, America and Britain have resolved their long-running differences with France and Russia—the two second-world-war allies who had opposed the Iraq war and retain a veto on UN Security Council resolutions. On Tuesday June 8th, after France signalled its willingness to support a revised text put forward by America, the Security Council was expected to approve unanimously a resolution authorising coalition forces to continue in Iraq after the handover of power to the country’s new, interim government at the end of this month.

The main sticking-point had been whether the Iraqis would have any control over the deployment of the American-led forces. France and others had wanted the government of Ayad Allawi, the new Iraqi prime minister, to be given some sort of veto over actions by foreign troops. America said this was out of the question and that the arrangements for consulting the Iraqi government over military operations would be laid down in side letters between Iraq and America, not in the UN resolution itself.

After days of haggling, the two camps agreed to split the difference: the word “veto” does not appear in the new resolution but it does affirm the Iraqi government’s right to “close co-ordination and consultation”, especially on “sensitive offensive operations”.


President Bush consulted with the UN before ordering the attack on Iraq.

Posted by Orrin Judd at June 8, 2004 2:30 PM
Comments

Now that we're there, the French want us in Iraq. It's why they "caved" on the previous post-war resolutions. From their POV, if we've got the bulk of our forces stuck in Iraq fighting an essentially unwinnable guerrilla war, we're not off meddling elsewhere.

If the French or the Russians were seriously opposed, they would have used their veto and then played Sphinx.

Posted by: Derek Copold at June 8, 2004 6:28 PM

Unwinnable? We won.

Posted by: oj at June 8, 2004 6:34 PM

Derek:

If you're thinking of Vietnam or Afghanistan as the prototype for your "essentially unwinnable guerrilla war", remember that the Mặt Trận Giải Phng Miền Nam Việt Nam (Viet Cong) were supported by the Chinese and Russians, and the Afghan Muhajadeen were supported and supplied by the US.

So, who's sponsoring the Iraqi Fedayeen ?
Sure, Syria and Iran might be providing intelligence and safe harbor, but they're not going to re-supply and train the Fedayeen.

There may be many nations and societies that wish the US were not in Iraq, or hope that America fails and is embarrassed, but who will actively oppose us ?

Posted by: Michael Herdegen at June 8, 2004 6:55 PM

OJ,

We haven't won anything. The militias we were fighting are still there exerting influence. We only retreated. We dare not leave for fear they'll overturn our new puppet government. Baghdad is far more unsafe today than when we showed up, both for our troops and for civilians. All you have here is a lot of papering over of f***-ups so that boobs can say, "See, uh-hunh, we won."

Michael,

I'm think more along the lines of Lebanon and even Palestine. Even tenuous supplies, guerrilla forces inflicted stalemate and even defeat on a far more powerful enemy over time. And Israel had a far greater interest in winning. We simply don't, as we proved with both Fallujah and Najaf, where we retreated, or should I say "repositioned."

As for training, it doesn't take much to learn how to fire an RPG. That's why they're so loved over there, and Iraq has an entire generation who learned to use them and can train the next one. In the end it's unwinnable; it's like beating sand.

Posted by: Derek Copold at June 8, 2004 7:07 PM

There's a Kurdistan, a Shi'astan and the fate of the Sunni is undetermined. That's a win.

Posted by: oj at June 8, 2004 7:16 PM

Derek you're delusional if you don't realize the facts of this matter. Stop watching the alphabet Networks and read about the situation from people who are actually there.

Posted by: Bartman at June 8, 2004 7:43 PM

Regarding Iran/Syria: They together with Hizbullah will fund/assist/support/organize/direct the insurgency in Iraq until it is made clear to them, in terms that they can understand, that it is not in their interest to do so. How "final" such an understanding is would depend on the terms.

Regarding Israel's inability to overcome its enemies: Civilized nations are not supposed to destroy their enemies. (There are exceptions, however.) This is why the terror war of attrition will continue unabated until the Palestinians and their allies feel they can launch a knockout blow (though to try to do so would be questionable strategy, since the attrition is working so well); or until Israel tires of that terror war of attrition and its water-on-rock threat of annihilation.

Regarding French/Russian rapprochement to the US/Allied position on Iraq: They smile. They nod their heads gravely and they grasp hands resolutely. But might they just be a little nervous about what might be revealed in the upcoming, projected, trial of Saddam (assuming this will occur)? The only question, here, though, is whether such revelations will even be reported, given that the level of "distractions" during the projected trial will be rather huge--or whether they will be believed, or deemed important, given the jaundiced eyes that will be supposedly reporting them.

Posted by: Barry Meislin at June 9, 2004 4:38 AM

The Iranians are the enemies of the Syrian Ba'athists.

Posted by: oj at June 9, 2004 7:26 AM

Um, sure oj, whatever you say....

Posted by: Barry Meislin at June 9, 2004 7:52 AM

Iran and Syria are going to have to stop whatever they might currently be doing in Iraq, once the Iraqi gov't takes over.

At that point, it's not trying to dislodge an occupying invader, it's fomenting sedition.
A casus belli.

Israel is moving towards being able to deliver a knockout blow to the Palestinians.
As oj has been arguing, once Palestine is a nation, then if the PA won't do anything about cross-border terrorist activity, Israel can respond with great force.
They won't be abusing an occupied people, as is currently the zeitgeist, they'll be delivering retribution to an enemy nation's population.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen at June 9, 2004 3:40 PM

Michael nails it about Israel. And it might not even take 6 days this time.

Posted by: Bartman at June 9, 2004 4:06 PM

But that is precisely why Palestine is not going to declare itself a nation anytime soon. At least not while Israel is still around.

One of the main reasons, anyway. The other main reason being that declarations of statehood mean, essentially, recognizing Israeli statehood.

The third main reason being that it's accomplishing its goals, thank you very much, without having to declare itself a nation.

So far.

Now, about those goals....

Posted by: Barry Meislin at June 10, 2004 3:48 AM

Barry:

Which is why you can't leave it up to them to decide. Those who propose to do so only aid the terrorists.

Posted by: oj at June 10, 2004 8:32 AM
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