EUROPE IS OVER...MOVE ON:

A Pentagon Plan Would Cut Back G.I.'s in Germany: The Pentagon is planning to withdraw its two Army divisions from Germany and undertake an array of other changes in its European-based forces. (MICHAEL R. GORDON, 6/04/04, NY Times)

Proponents of Mr. Rumsfeld's plan see little merit in keeping a large number of forces in Germany now that the cold war is over. They argue that the United States would be better off withdrawing most of them and establishing new bases in Southeastern Europe, from which forces could be rushed if there was a crisis in the Caucasus or the Middle East.

"From a strategic point of view, there is more sense in moving things out of Germany and having something in Bulgaria and Romania," said Joseph Ralston, a retired general and a former NATO commander.

But some experts and allied officials are concerned that a substantial reduction in the United States military presence in Europe would reduce American influence there, reinforce the notion that the Bush administration prefers to act unilaterally and inadvertently lend support to the French contention that Europe must rely on itself for its security.

Montgomery Meigs, a retired general and the former head of Army forces in Europe, said substantial reductions in American troops in Europe could limit the opportunities to train with NATO's new East European members and other allies. While American forces can still be sent for exercises from the United States, he said, it will be more difficult and costly to do so.

"You will never sustain the level of engagement from the United States that you can from Europe," he said. "We will not go to as many NATO exercises or have as many training events."

Other specialists have warned that the greatest risk is the possible damage to allied relations.

"The most serious potential consequences of the contemplated shifts would not be military but political and diplomatic," Kurt Campbell and Celeste Johnson Ward of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote in an article published last year in the journal Foreign Affairs, well before the extent of the changes now planned became known."Unless the changes are paired with a sustained and effective diplomatic campaign, therefore, they could well increase foreign anxiety about and distrust of the United States."

Gen. James Jones, the American commander of NATO, has supported the withdrawal of the two divisions from Europe on the understanding that American ground units would rotate regularly through Europe, allied officials say. But some allied officials believe it is less clear that the Pentagon will finance and organize the regular rotation of forces that are central to General Jones's vision, especially since so much of the United States' energy and effort is focused on Iraq. [...]

The Pentagon plan was discussed at a May 20 meeting of top United States officials. Administration officials declined to comment on the record about the session. A State Department official said that the meeting was a "snapshot at a given time," and that some ideas have continued to be refined since then. In the meeting, Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, who was once the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said he thought it was unlikely that the Turks would agree to allow the United States to operate freely from Turkish bases. Gen. Richard B. Myers, the current chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, also said securing Turkey's agreement was a long shot and indicated that he favored keeping the F-16's in Germany, according to an account of the session that was provided.

No United States forces are to be removed from Italy. The Navy's European headquarters, however, is scheduled to move from London to Naples.

Earlier plans to move that headquarters to Spain have been dropped. While skeptics have wondered if the switch from Spain to Italy is related to the decision by Spain's new Socialist government to withdraw its troops from Iraq, Defense Department officials insist that it is being made on cost grounds.

Why do people worry about them not trusting us when they've demonstrated repeatedly that we can't trust them?

Posted by Orrin Judd at June 4, 2004 8:04 AM