June 2, 2004
A BETTER ENDING THAN MOST:
History tells us that most conflicts end in chaos (John Keegan, 01/06/2004, Daily Telegraph)
The Second World War, which has largely formed Western attitudes to war termination, ended neatly for simple reasons: both the Germans and Japanese had had the stuffing knocked out of them. Their cities had been burnt out or bombed flat, millions of their young men had been killed in battle, so had hundreds of thousands of their women and children by strategic bombing. The Japanese were actually starving, while the Germans looked to their Western occupiers both to feed them and to save them from the spectre of Soviet rule. Two highly disciplined and law-abiding populations meekly submitted to defeat.Because we in the Atlantic region remember 1945 as the year of victory over our deadliest enemies, we usually forget that the Second World War did not end neatly in other parts of the world. In Greece, the guerrilla war against the Germans became a civil war which lasted until 1949 and killed 150,000 people. Peace never really came to Japanese-occupied Asia. In China, Vietnam, Indonesia and Burma, the Second World War became several wars of national liberation, lasting years and killing hundreds of thousands. In Burma, the civil war persists.
The aftermath of the First World War was worse. On Armistice night, Lloyd George, leaving the House of Commons with Winston Churchill, remarked: "The war of the giants is over. The war of the pygmies is about to begin." The pygmies, in civil wars in Germany, Hungary, Poland, the Baltic states, Finland and above all Russia, went on fighting for years, killing or starving to death millions. A full-blown war of conquest by Greece against Turkey ended in a Greek humiliation but also 300,000 deaths. [...]
History boys can explain easily - and convincingly - why some wars, as that against Germany in 1945, end in unopposed occupation of enemy territory and why others, as in Iraq in 1920 and 2004, do not. In the first case, the defeated nation has exhausted itself in the struggle and is dependent on the victor both for necessities and for protection against further disaster - social revolution or aggression by another enemy. In the second case, the war has not done much harm but has broken the power of the state and encouraged the dispossessed and the irresponsible to grab what they can before order is fully restored.
What monopolises the headlines and prime time television at the moment is news from Iraq on the activity of small, localised minorities struggling to entrench themselves before full peace is imposed and an effective state structure is restored. The news is, in fact, very repetitive: disorder in Najaf and Fallujah, misbehaviour by a tiny handful of US Army reservists - not properly trained regular soldiers - in one prison. There is nothing from Iraq's other 8,000 towns and villages, nothing from Kurdistan, where complete peace prevails, very little from Basra, where British forces are on good terms with the residents.
Even worse, we failed to protect half of Germany and many of the nations it had already victimized itself from that spectre of Soviet rule, making the end of WWII a national disgrace we can never expunge. Posted by Orrin Judd at June 2, 2004 7:39 AM
OJ, only you could think that the greatest victory in the history of our nation in the largest war ever fought is "a national disgrace we can never expunge."
But we've had this argument before.
Posted by: Brandon at June 2, 2004 1:07 PMask anyone in Eastern Europe who won the war.
Posted by: oj at June 2, 2004 1:18 PMThey weren't worse off than before the war started, so why would we care? We weren't over there in the late '30s liberating them from the Arrow Cross movement etc. either.
Posted by: Harry Eagar at June 2, 2004 2:16 PM"ask anyone in Eastern Europe who won the war."
We did,of course.
The Germans and Russians bled each other dry,Britain and France lost their empires and fell middle rank power,Japan was prostrate and China in chaos,leaving us more or less supreme.
And all for only 300,000 dead.
Or did you really fall for that "Crusade for Humanity" nonsense Roosevelt was selling?
No, in national security matters one needn't give a fig for humanity. I meant that the Cold War that the loss of WWII left us holding the bag for did more damage to America than beating the Nazis was worth.
Posted by: oj at June 2, 2004 2:40 PM"did more damage to America than beating the Nazis was worth"
No,Johnson's bungling of Vietnam did more damage,giving the left more credibility than they would otherwise have earned and underminingg the right for 2 generations(and the right still lacks competent intellectual and politcal leadership today,too many start from a leftist position).
W's bungling in Iraq(if that's happening)would again undermine the right.
Our big mistake was made in 1917.
Posted by: at June 2, 2004 3:15 PMNo Soviet Union in '45, no Vietnam in '68.
Posted by: oj at June 2, 2004 3:42 PMIf we're playing revisionist history, perhaps you can provide a listing of all the wars we would have had to fight had we occupied the Soviet Union in 1945(46? 47? 52? 55? How long would that have taken anyway?)
Of course by your reasoning, we never should have pulled out of Russia in 1919. But then, that wouldn't really have removed the need to fight Germany nor Japan later on would it?
Posted by: Brandon at June 2, 2004 5:04 PMI agree, but that doesn't answer my question.
Why do you assume that, had USA invaded the Soviet Union in 1945, there would have followed a victory so complete that the Cold War would seem the worse alternative?
Posted by: Brandon at June 2, 2004 5:56 PMBecause Soviet Russia was much like Nazi Germany.
Posted by: oj at June 2, 2004 7:08 PMBrandon:
OJ makes the common mistake of easily identifying the consequences of the path taken while simultaneously presuming benefits of the path not taken.
He is comparing chalk and cheese.
Further, he completely ignores the fact that leaving communism in the guise of the USSR to collapse under its own buffoonery prevented communism from adopting the mantle of martyrhood we would otherwise have handed it.
Posted by: Jeff Guinn at June 2, 2004 10:40 PMYeah, tough dealing with all those Nazi martyrs...
Posted by: oj at June 2, 2004 10:49 PMNo Soviet Union in 1945, no Apollo Moon landing in 1969.
'No bucks, no Buck Rogers'.
Posted by: Robert Duquette at June 3, 2004 1:02 AMLanding by '69 was a mistake which locked us into rocketry for far too long. Yeager and those guys would be flying there by now.
Posted by: oj at June 3, 2004 8:33 AMDoubtful. Now that we are the sole superpower, what is our impetus to invest in space technology? It isn't there. I doubt that we would have done more than launch communications satellites without the Cold War. Even GPS would probably not have been realized. Technological innovations require the challenge of necessity. The Cold War was very wasteful of human lives, mostly in poor nations, but it did advance science and technology considerably.
Posted by: Robert Duquette at June 3, 2004 10:42 AMRobert:
Don't worry., there'd have been plenty of reason to waste resources on the military.
Posted by: oj at June 3, 2004 11:23 AMYou say of course they were worse off after1945.
Presumably because you consider being murdered without the sanction of the Big Spook is worse than being murdered with it.
Either way, you're dead. Hard for me, at least, to see any difference.
Posted by: Harry Eagar at June 3, 2004 3:35 PMWho was being murdered in 1938?
Posted by: oj at June 3, 2004 3:45 PM"Yeah, tough dealing with all those Nazi martyrs..."
Specious comparison. Communism, for whatever reason, had a far different hold on people than Nazism did.
Or hadn't you noticed?
Posted by: Jeff Guinn at June 3, 2004 8:23 PMThey had identical holds--tyrannical minorities had to control populations by force. Get rid of the minority and Communism would have gone the way of Nazism. No one sides with the losers.
Posted by: oj at June 3, 2004 10:01 PMOJ:
I'm primarily talking about communist sympathizers outside the USSR/China. However, had we invaded after WWII, there would have been far more of them within Russia, too.
Your revisionist history utterly disregards the martyrdom effect that would have attended such an invasion.
Posted by: Jeff Guinn at June 5, 2004 8:33 AMMartyrdom requires deaths. I'm pro-death for communists.
Posted by: oj at June 5, 2004 8:38 AMYou fail to understand my point.
By allowing Communisms inadequacies to sink it, far fewer people lamented its passing than had we pushed it over the same brink.
Think of all the Communist insurgencies we aren't fighting now.
Posted by: Jeff Guinn at June 6, 2004 6:57 PMI take your point, it's just wrong. Those insurgencies existed because Moscow was there to fund them.
Posted by: oj at June 6, 2004 8:37 PMNo, you don't take my point.
Had we strangled Communism, many would still mourn its passing and yearn for its resurgence.
Having allowed it die a painful, obvious, ignominous death, nearly everyone outside Political Science departments has taken the lesson on board.
Look at it this way: what would the effect on Christianity have been had Christ died of old age?
Posted by: Jeff Guinn at June 7, 2004 9:57 PMWhat was the effect on Communism of Marx dying of old age? The example you're groping for is the Albigensians. Once they were wiped out, no one wandered around asking to be next.
Posted by: oj at June 7, 2004 10:03 PMI dunno about martyrs, but if the US and Allies had crushed the USSR in '45 - '47, other nations at other times would have tried Communism.
Now, it's pretty clear that communism ain't the way to go.
Whether the Cold War was cheaper in lucre and blood than dealing with communistic countries in the 21st century, is unclear to me.
Posted by: Michael Herdegen at June 8, 2004 4:07 AMThere are and have been plenty of fascist countries since '45. They had sense enough not to emulate the Nazis. Communist experiments like Cuba would likely have eschewed world revolutionn had we made it clear it imposed a regime death sentence.
Posted by: oj at June 8, 2004 8:49 AM