June 14, 2004
60-40 FILES:
Five Months to E-Day: Senate roundup (John J. Miller, 6/14/04, National Review)
For two weeks, much of the news has dwelt on the past: Celebrating the Greatest Generation and D-Day, and then the passing of one of America's great presidents. It's easy to forget that the next generation of senators continues to plan for E-Day, now less than five months in the future.Much has happened since April and my previous report on this year's Senate races: Pete Coors declared his candidacy in Colorado, Arlen Specter nipped Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania's GOP primary, and South Carolina Republicans picked a pair of runoff candidates. Without further ado, here's a roundup as we head toward summer.
If my math is right, he's got GOP +2. Posted by Orrin Judd at June 14, 2004 1:10 PM
Miller had the GOP -2 for the 2002 elections instead of the actual +2. I think he tends to be too pessimistic and focuses on inside the beltway things like $ or name recognition rather than the mood of the voters. Here he has solid GOP states like Alaska, Colorado, Lousiana, Oklahoma, North Carolina as toss ups. He has Daschle winning South Dakota which seems suspect.
My current feeling is GOP +4 (SC, NC, FL, GA, and SD or LA offset by losing IL) with upside potential for +WA or +CA if it is a Bush blowout.