June 12, 2004
50-0 FILES:
Cursed by lagging perceptions: Is the economy doing well enough, plainly enough, to help George Bush? (The Economist Jun 10th 2004)
MORNING in America or jobless recovery? 1984 or 1992? These parallels have long inspired and haunted George Bush's White House. Ronald Reagan romped to a landslide victory in 1984 amid a booming economy; George Bush senior lost the 1992 election during a lacklustre, job-scarce recovery. Fortunately for today's president, America's current recovery is looking ever more robust. But voters do not yet seem to agree.For the past nine months America's economy has grown at an average annualised rate of 5.6%, the fastest nine-month growth since 1984. Not only do the latest figures show jobs being created apace, but new statistical revisions suggest that job growth has been stronger for longer than many had thought.
Almost 1m jobs were created between March and May, the fastest increase since the giddy days of early 2000. Since January, the average monthly job gain has been 238,000—not blistering, but certainly healthy. With 1.4m new jobs created since last August, more than half the 2.7m jobs lost on George Bush's watch have now been recovered. According to Jim O'Sullivan of UBS Bank, recent revisions to income statistics also suggest that job growth at the end of 2003 will turn out to be stronger than the current numbers suggest.
Earlier this year Greg Mankiw, the chairman of Mr Bush's Council of Economic Advisers, was ridiculed for a forecast that suggested America's economy would create 2.6m jobs this year. If job creation continues at today's pace, that forecast will prove too low.
Harold Stassen could win this one. Posted by Orrin Judd at June 12, 2004 3:02 PM
In 1992 the Press tried to downplay the recovery that was ongoing during the election.
In 2000 they played the economy up, even though the signs of failure were becoming noticable. They accused Bush of talking down the economy, particularly when he had just taken office.
So, the press downplays the economy as much as possible. It will work, as it always does, for a time. But facts are stubborn things and eventually, the lagging perception will catch up with the reality.
June, July, August, Sept, Oct -- plenty of time.
John Kerry should be 20 points up on Bush right now. That he is in a dead heat at this point says alot about his weakness as a candidate.
50-0 is way too optimistic, but I doubt I will need to stay up all night to watch the election returns this go around.
Posted by: AML at June 12, 2004 9:19 PM