RED VS. BLUE VS. RED-GREEN (via Tom Morin):

KTHE NADER FACTOR: How much does Kerry have to lose? (Jim Geraghty, 05/18/04, National Review)

Perhaps the most significant and underreported story of the past week: Ralph Nader was endorsed Wednesday by the Reform party.

Presuming he accepts their nomination — and Nader spokesman Kevin Zeese told reporters, "he'll be on the ballot in Florida" — Nader will automatically get on the ballot in Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Colorado, Kansas, Mississippi, Montana, and South Carolina.

The last four are shoo-ins for Bush, but the first three are swing states, and the Kerry campaign is spending $1 million in commercials in Colorado, suggesting they think they can pick it up.

Those four are also among Nader's stronger bases of support, judging from the last time around. Nader got 97,421 Florida votes in 2000 as Bush won the state by 537 votes. In 2000, Nader won 91,434 votes in Colorado — 5.25 percent of the vote — one if his best showings. In Wisconsin, Nader had 94,070 votes, or 3.62 percent, in a state that Gore carried by 5,708 votes. In Michigan, Nader had 84,165, or 1.99 percent.

Five Reasons Nader May Do Well In November:

1. Iraq will be at least one of the biggest issues, if not the issue in November. While Kerry is "nuancing" and talking about sending more troops to Iraq, Nader can play the role of the true antiwar candidate, demanding a total withdrawal within six months. How much will that siren's call appeal to ANSWER and the Deaniacs?

2. Some Green voters really do want to "punish" Democrats, for waffling, not taking a strong enough stand, and for not pushing Greens' core issues.

This is all amusing enough in the short run, and will put Mr. Kerry closer to 40% in November than to 50%, but the longer term implications seem more significant: Doesn't the Green Party--especially if it were to add a Redder (more overtly Socialist) patina, as it has in Europe--better represent the Left than the Democrats do?

Posted by Orrin Judd at May 19, 2004 9:33 AM