May 15, 2004
IS THAT REALLY THE SMELL OF VICTORY
Undeterred by McCain Denials, Some See Him as Kerry's No. 2 (Sheryl Gay Stolberg and Jodi Wilgoren, New York Times, 5/15/04)
Despite weeks of steadfast rejections from Senator John McCain, some prominent Democrats are angling for him to run for vice president alongside Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, creating a bipartisan ticket that they say would instantly transform the presidential race.I know that there is some panic out there among conservatives. I, too, would prefer that the President's poll numbers were pulling away (although it really isn't possible for the President to be in a statistical dead heat nationally and in California). But, this story reflects true panic. Even the Democrats suspect that Democrats can't win.The enthusiasm of Democrats for Mr. McCain, an Arizona Republican, is so high that even some who have been mentioned as possible Kerry running mates — including Senator Bill Nelson of Florida and Bob Kerrey, the former Nebraska senator — are spinning scenarios about a "unity government," effectively giving Mr. Kerry a green light to reach across the political aisle and extend an offer.
"Senator McCain would not have to leave his party," Mr. Kerrey said. "He could remain a Republican, would be given some authority over selection of cabinet people. The only thing he would have to do is say, `I'm not going to appoint any judges who would overturn Roe v. Wade,' " the Supreme Court decision that legalized abortion, which Mr. McCain has said he opposes.
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Is Zogby Right? Is the Election Kerry's to Lose? (Rasmussen Reports, 5/15/04)
What little movement we have seen suggests that the President loses a couple of points every time a new level of bad news comes from Iraq. After a few days or a week, however, the numbers return to the toss-up range. Senator Kerry loses a few points every time the spotlight focuses on him. Kerry's numbers bounce back when the focus returns to the President.Unfortunately, the challenger can't use a Rose Garden strategy. Posted by David Cohen at May 15, 2004 11:02 AM
I don't think McCain is dumb enough to do it. Too much of a risk to his legacy if Kerry screws up the G.W.O.T., and given the opportunity, Kerry will.
I think the "Battle for Iraq" is starting to shape up. If Fallujah and Naja were our equivalent to Tet ... we're winning again.
The anti-war group senses it and they just spent their "silver bullet" and it hit them in the foot.
Rummy seems back on track.
Posted by: genecis at May 15, 2004 11:24 AMPerhaps they sense that, with Bush currently weakened, this is their opportunity to move to the center and lock in some of the pro-war independents. Once the scandal dissipates, and the situation in Iraq begins to settle, it will be too late.
Plus, it would be helpful for Kerry to have someone in his campaign who has a clue about how to appeal to moderates.
Posted by: Robert Duquette at May 15, 2004 12:11 PMHopefully this will remain a media fantasy. However, I think McCain might take it if offered as he'd never get the Republican nomination for either slot. Incidentally, he was almost the anchorman in his USNA class.
Posted by: George at May 15, 2004 12:12 PMThis story is certainly more damning for the Democrats than the Republicans. It is akin to George HW Bush being urged to choose Jesse Jackson as his running mate in 1992, or Clinton choosing Perot. It is something that "sage" (in their own eyes, of course) pundits like Michael Kinsley like to write about, and politicians like Bob Kerrey like to talk about.
Posted by: jim hamlen at May 15, 2004 12:36 PMI hope McCain takes the offer. Republicans get a twofer. Rid of a pain in the *ss and they win the Presidency.
Posted by: h-man at May 15, 2004 12:49 PMMcCain holds some positions in the Bush campaign (Ariz state chair?). For him to suddenly jump to running for VP as a Dem would be rightly seen as a traitor. He might bring in a few votes, but he also might alienate a lot more people. He could be a net loss. (For example, Richardson might have a better chance of helping carry Arizona.) As much as I dislike him, I can't see McCain being that stupid. Let's also not forget that the guy has some unacceptibly conservative positions on social issues-- like abortion-- that will not be ignored by large Dem constituencies either. Is Mr.Outspoken really going to outdo Lieberman just for the privilege of Cheney's job? If he did, the question which end of the ticket has more flops and reversals will be a prime topic.
Articles like this aren't even good sci-fi.
Didja get that lost the other day of Kerry's likely Defense Secs? McCain, Bill Cohen (again), other Republicans?
I don't have exact numbers, but it is noted that a huge percentage of staffers for Democratic members of committees like Armed Services and Intelligence are Republicans.
The fact is, the Democratic Party has categorically turned it's back on National Security as an issue. They can't be bothered with it, and many of them beleive it is flat out immoral to even discuss, study, or strategize it. This is what we see as a result. You think the Democratic Presidential "bench" is thin? Look at what happens when they even remotely think about Natl Security positions.
Wes Clark as SecDef? Oh, the Army'll just LOVE that!
Posted by: Andrew X at May 15, 2004 4:25 PMYou guys are missing the true damage that this does to Kerry. McCain is being built up by the media and donkey pundits as the ultimate GWB slayer. McCain is their best hope, their best choice to take out the president.
So, what happens when McCain refuses (and he will refuse)? Kerry looses even more steam because everyone is dissapointed in his second choice. Then people start to question again whether Kerry can win, if his good friend McCain wouldn't run with him. It goes from bad to worse.
Kerry ought to stamp these rumors down right now if he knew what's good for him. But Kerry is such a unlikeable insecure phony that he'd rather just name drop for a couple more months and sink his candidacy. I've suspected that Kerry's run is more vanity project than serious bid.
Posted by: AML at May 15, 2004 6:28 PMI can't see this form of manipulation working for the Democrats, or for Mc Cain either. Mc Cain is my senator, and a good one, but I would never vote for Kerry because of him. I'm not alone here. Family and friends there told me the same when this came up earlier. There's a whole nation of people out there called the 'mainstream' and they have pretty well tuned out the phoney political maneuvers. This election is for the nations well being and security. They know it.
Posted by: Tom Wall at May 15, 2004 6:35 PMAML - Not only that - what happens when McCain accepts Bush's invitation to replace Cheney on the ticket?
Then Kerry has built McCain up and now has to campaign against him.
I don't want McCain as VP because his anti-Christianity would be damaging if he ever became President, but it would help seal the election for Bush.
Posted by: pj at May 15, 2004 8:28 PMMy question is what would the impact be on the Democrat wing of the Democrat party. It is very hard for me to imagine the hard core left wing of the party swallowing McCain. Do they schism? Does Dean lead a walkout? Does Clinton pick up the pieces. My mind is reeling.
Posted by: Robert Schwartz at May 15, 2004 9:38 PMFirstly, some of McCain's stands on the issues (pro-2nd Amendment, among other things) don't meld with the Democrats'; hard to see the party brass accepting him as their #2 without getting from him a Lieberman-style "change of heart" on those issues. McCain seems firm enough (or bullheaded enough) to say no if it came to that.
Secondly (and this is the kicker for me), Kerry/McCain would be the first cross-party ticket on a major label since Lincoln/Johnson in 1864. You know where I'm going with this: if they were elected and something happened to Kerry, McCain would be likely to govern against the wishes of the people who elected him. And, unlike the Republicans of Reconstruction, the Democrats seem likely to retain their minority status in Congress, so they could do little to stop McCain from governing against them. I can think of no upside to Kerry picking McCain; on top of all else, he would upstage Kerry, which is why Hillary won't be picked. If the Democrats have any brains, McCain won't be their VP - the operative word, of course, being "if".
Posted by: John Barrett Jr. at May 15, 2004 10:15 PMCan you imagine the cries of "Republocrats!" that would well up from Nader and anyone tempted to vote for Nader? Man, that'd be sweet. It still worries me a little, though.
Posted by: Timothy at May 15, 2004 10:49 PMThe democratic wing of the democratic party is not anti-war, they are anti-Bush. It would be fun to see them twist themselves into pretzels in order to justify supporting a hawkish VP. But they would do it, because they are completely irrational.
The far left fringe would be thrilled to have McCain on the ticket if they thought he could beat Bush.
What about having two cancer survivors on the ticket? Well, I think they're survivors. Neither one is releasing any medical records, so who know what their prognosis is.
Posted by: NKR at May 15, 2004 11:28 PMFirst of all, the day Kerry asks him to be his running mate, McCain will become as anti-war as Howard Dean. McCain has got no principles, just like his buddy Kerry.
Secondly, Kerry doesn't even need McCain, because Bush is toast. He has dropped close to ten points behind in OH and PA, he is now 5 to 6 points behind nationally, his job approval falls about 5 points a week... By the end of June, he will be in the single digits.
It's time for Bush to do what LBJ did in 1968. It costed his party the White House, but it enabled it to dominate Congress for another 30 years. As things are going now, the GOP will be back where it was in the late seventies.
Posted by: Peter at May 16, 2004 7:44 AMOH MY GOD -- it's all over. Who do I know who can get me a job in the Kerry Administration?
Posted by: David Cohen at May 16, 2004 9:07 AMFirst, McCain is not going to be anyone's VP, its just not in his character from what I've observed.
Second, Bush is not "toast." Not by any means. November is a long long way away. Incumbancy, the convention schedule are structural advantages that cannot be overcome.
As time passes the perception of the economy will catch up with the reality of the economy.
In Iraq, it seems that the bad news is happening in May, October. The new "Tet" offensive was unsuccessful -- ironically, because the democrats were already anti-war. Vietnam was abandonded because democrats changed sides after Tet. In Iraq, they were already on the other side and it just didn't have the same impact.
Why not McCain for the top of the ticket with Kerry as his VP? If they're serious about unity, that is.
Posted by: oj at May 16, 2004 7:47 PMKerry should pick the rabbit that spooked Jimmy Carter in 1979. It seems fitting, somehow. One question - if Bush continues to drop and by November 2 is in negative numbers in the polls, does that really mean that a -10 translates into a +90 and he wins the biggest landslide ever?
Peter - go sit by the pool until Sept. 15th. Drink some tea, have some lunch, and relax. Kerry will never get over 45% of the vote. Bush may never get more than 53%, but that's more than enough.
Posted by: jim hamlen at May 16, 2004 10:19 PM