May 17, 2004

CAN'T KEEP A GOOD IDEA DOWN:

What is the TerrorXchange?

Posted by Orrin Judd at May 17, 2004 4:44 PM
Comments

This will be fun to watch, but not necessarily informative. As is said of the US stock market, "the market has predicted nine of the past six recessions".

As Harry noted when this first came up, markets are subject to manias and manipulation.
Did eBay, in February of '03, deserve to have a market cap of 110% that of GM ?
What did that tell us, other than that quite a few people can't do basic math ?

This exchange will no doubt predict a terror attack in the US in the near future, but that only means that people are worried about it, not that one will occur.

The exchange will provide entertainment, however, and so, in the words of a convicted criminal, "It's a good thing".

Posted by: Michael Herdegen at May 18, 2004 1:14 AM

Who the heck clicked on northern Canada?

Posted by: Rick T. at May 18, 2004 10:03 AM

Michael-

You're getting close to an important insight. Futures markets are probably most helpful as contrarian indicators. You would have made a lot of money betting against volatility or put/call ratios in the equity markets over the last few years.

Posted by: Tom Corcoran at May 18, 2004 1:19 PM
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