I continue to think that those who think Kerry will win by a landslide ought to be more than matched numerically by those who think Bush will win CA. Both are outlier predictions, but making CA a battleground is not. I would concede that on social issues, Bush is to the right of CA (but not as much as surveys would suggest, to wit the one on same-sex marriage recently). However, after bearing the brunt (if not helping drive?) the national economic slowdown into recession, Californians will be more likely than others to respond to the economic improvement turned into boom. With Arnold at the helm, actively in the face of voters, and every local Dem face against him a socialist dinosaur, the GOP starts to look like the party of economic growth with MBA Bush at the helm. To this add a bit of Dem overplaying the blame America first card in Iraq, and you drive all those new voters the GOP has signed up to the polls. Finally, dis Hispanic voters by NOT picking "Ricardo son" and picking Bayh or Gephardt, and you have a recipe for low turnout. All of this ought to lead the DNC to piss away serious dought on the Left Coast.

In the "free media" category, Arnold vs. Boxer in the state races as Bush vs. Kerry surrogates certainly plays to GWB's favor, which means Kerry will have to invest in more paid media in the California markets, not a great thing financially considerin the number of TV stations and the size of the markets he'll have to make media buys in.

Combine that with the closeness of the recent New Jersey polls -- which meay force Kerry into exteansive NYC media buys (he's going to have to do Philly anyway for te Pennsylvania race) and you start burning off a lot of money in areas where the Democratic nominess should not have to be making major TV buys, as opposed to putting it into the so-called battleground states.

The Kerry campaign, at least, is already "piss[ing] away serious dough on the Left Coast." Here in the Upper Left Washington they are running his "you don't really know me, do you?" ads in a state where he has to work hard to lose.

I agree that winning the Left Coast is a dream, but it's much better to make the Dems defend their territory for once.

Agree with all of the above. The GOP may not be able to win the Presidential or Senate races in CA but they can at least make the Dems spend a lot of money and time defending them.

If California is a battleground then the war is already over.