BEING REAL:

Positive signs for GOP in Democratic-leaning California (BETH FOUHY, May 25, 2004, AP)

[R]epublicans see a wealth of opportunities on the horizon, due in large part to shifting population growth and the broad popularity of their new governor - Arnold Schwarzenegger.

"I have always maintained that California is far more competitive than pundits believe," said former Gov. Gray Davis, the Democrat who was recalled by voters and replaced by Schwarzenegger last year. "Democrats can't win this state on the cheap. Kerry has to spend money here, and I believe he knows that."

Political strategists largely credit excitement about Schwarzenegger with helping to increase Republican voter registration in the state, cutting the advantage for the Democrats from more than 10 percent in 2000 to about 8 percent.

Organizers of the Republican National Convention and Schwarzenegger aides are trying to reach an agreement on how to showcase him in New York in late August. The Schwarzenegger camp is pressing for a prominent role - perhaps a prime-time convention speech - that organizers have not yet offered. [...]

Republicans point to the state's changing population patterns. While Democratic strongholds such as the San Francisco Bay area have been bleeding population, growth has exploded in traditionally Republican areas such as northern San Diego County and the so-called Inland Empire east of Los Angeles, where cheaper housing and new roads have lured thousands of families.

Said Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie: "There is no downside to us competing in California, and having it be real."

They could easily win the Senate race too, which Mr. Schwarzenegger is more personally invested in, with Barbara Boxer continuing to poll below 50%.

Posted by Orrin Judd at May 25, 2004 5:56 PM