May 12, 2004
AXIS OF GOOD FILES:
Philippine vote tilts to US ally: Hopes rise for peace talks following the apparent victory of President Gloria Arroyo in Monday's election. (Donald Kirk, 5/13/04, CS Monitor)
The official results of the election won't be known for weeks, but exit polls point to a comfortable victory for Ms. Arroyo. She received clear support from the large southern island of Mindanao among Christians as well as in Mindanao's southernmost Muslim provinces, the small island of Basilan, and the Sulu Island chain.While the economy remains the top domestic issue here, international attention and US support has focused on the government's security efforts. Arroyo has moved to crush the die-hard remnants of the terrorist Abu Sayyaf while pursuing peace talks with the biggest, most influential Muslim grouping, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), to bring its fighters into the mainstream. Her strong showing in the south has raised hopes that the strategy will succeed in reducing tension in a region roiled by Islamic revolt.
"With a six-year term, our negotiators are now very confident they could reach a peace settlement" with the MILF, says Rigoberto Tiglao, the president's chief of staff.
Analysts say that Arroyo should have enough time on her side to be able to display patience in both diplomacy and war. José Concepcion, chairman of NAMFREL, the widely used acronym for the watchdog National Citizens' Movement for Free Elections, predicts intensified efforts at reconciliation.
"The military has learned a lesson," says Concepcion. "We cannot be like Sharon" - a reference to the hard-line tactics of the Israeli leader in dealing with Palestinian uprisings. "You have to reach out. We have seen these people abandon their guns."
While the government has taken a softer approach with the MILF, Manila enlisted Washington's support to crush the Abu Sayyaf group, alleged to have ties with Al Qaeda. Leftist groups have protested the presence of 100 US military advisers in the country.
US military units fly in for annual joint exercises with Philippine forces, but Arroyo is not likely to want to see the number of US advisers increase significantly in the near future. "The nature of our military activities is based on cycles and phases," says Capt. Dennis Williams, a US military spokesman .
Unlike in Spain's recent elections, the president's close ties to the Bush administration were not a dominant election issue here.
Helps that, unlike the Europeans, they're a Christian nation. Posted by Orrin Judd at May 12, 2004 11:50 PM
MILF= Worst. Terrorist. Name. Ever.
Posted by: brian at May 12, 2004 11:57 PMOf course, one cannot forget the Phillipines, was
the first great overseas quagmire, as everyone from Carnegie to Twain to Bryan made clear (interestingly Bryan like a Sen US Senator, voted
for the treaty, that ratified the occupation, he
opposed). Meanwhile, the future directors of the
American military, from Pershing to MacArthur,
got their start in the Phillipine campaign; as
did an equal number in the great 'quagmire' of
the 20s & 20s' Nicaragua
Interesting. The Philippine president was warned last year that keeping her troops in Iraq would jeopardize her re-election. And yet she persisted.
Now the Philippines (population 81,000,000) has given her an electoral victory. Measure this against the electoral loss in Spain (population only 40,000,000), and then note which side in the war on terror has received the greater mandate.
It seems that her country learned more from 400 years of Spanish occupation than the Spaniards themselves care to remember.
Posted by: HT at May 13, 2004 12:13 AMThe loss in Spain was a problem of timing, which no doubt al-Qaeda counted on... If the attack had been two weeks before the election, Aznar likely would have been re-elected.
Posted by: Michael Herdegen at May 13, 2004 12:20 AMMILF= Worst. Terrorist. Name. Ever.
Try to Google that one and have it remain workplace safe.
Posted by: pchuck at May 13, 2004 9:38 AM>The loss in Spain was a problem of timing, which
>no doubt al-Qaeda counted on...
Which is why I expect a really BIG October Surprise from al-Qaeda just before the US elections. (After all, Kerry has shown he'll make a Good Little Dhimmi.)
Posted by: Ken at May 13, 2004 12:41 PM