60-40 VISION:

South Dakota Heats Up: The tried-and-tested may soon be bested. (Jon Lauck, 5/20/04, National Review)

The news that the race is tightening comes as a hammer blow to the Daschle campaign. They had been expecting to widen their lead after spending close to $8 million on a barrage of television, radio, and newspaper ads, in addition to tens of thousands of costly mailers to individual voters. What's doubly damning about Daschle's inability to move his numbers is that the Thune campaign has spent only about $500,000, and has not run a single ad.

The Daschle campaign has the "French army problem": They're fighting the last war. In past campaigns, Daschle has adhered to a simple model, but it has become outdated and unworkable, and the unwillingness of the Daschle campaign to deviate from that model has led to some fundamental miscalculations.

In Daschle's early campaigns, for example, which coincided with rise of Reaganism, he ran as a "non-partisan" politician and staked out conservative positions. Daschle didn't openly identify himself as a Democrat, ran localized "door-to-door"campaigns, and emphasized personality and niceness instead of issues. To the extent that he embraced the latter, he opposed abortion, touted a balanced-budget amendment, and supported the Reagan tax cuts. He also focused heavily on agricultural issues, especially during the sad days of the 1980s farm depression.

Daschle's image-maker was, and still is, Karl Struble, who started his work as a Democratic operative for Jimmy Carter in 1980 and focused much of his attention on grass-roots organizing and image-shaping. Struble learned from Democratic mistakes and from the Reagan campaign: "Democrats have been hung up with the details of a subject, instead of the overriding feelings the electorate has." In 1985, Congressional Quarterly reported that in Daschle's 1984 House reelection effort, "Struble tested the 'feel good' approach with a series of ads built around the theme of 'Why I Love South Dakota.' His current work for Daschle picks up where those left off. 'It's almost impossible to see an issue or an accomplishment in the first few ads we put together,' says Struble." [...]

The last Senate leader to lose his reelection bid was Majority Leader Ernest McFarland (D., Ariz.) in the 1952 election. McFarland had a positive image in Arizona, but he failed to adjust his campaign techniques to a new political dynamic. A recent book about McFarland makes much of his "antiquated campaign tactics and organization" and his adherence to a campaign model that wasn't working. McFarland was also hurt by broader, national issues and the unpopularity of Democrats nationally, especially President Truman. McFarland lost to a dynamic, 43-year-old businessman from Phoenix named Barry Goldwater. John Thune, for the record, recently turned 43. [...]

— Jon Lauck is a professor of history at South Dakota State University and is blogging about the South Dakota Senate race at www.daschlevthune.com

It seems awfully hard to believe that the Blue Party can have its Senate leaders be from Red States and expect them to get re-elected.

Posted by Orrin Judd at May 20, 2004 6:09 PM