So why do all these state polls show Kerry and Bush even in states that should be solidly pro-Kerry when Bush's national numbers are so poor? The only explanation that I can come up with is that a lot of people who answer "yes" when asked if they are dissatified with Bush's performance do so because they think he hasn't done enough, not that he's done something wrong that Kerry could do better.

That means that there are a lot of people out there who could be pursuaded to turn out to vote for Bush, or to stay home, but not to vote for Kerry. So Kerry's job is to keep his base from bleeding Green/Nader while doing what he can to keep the middle from going to vote.

While that should be possible, is there a way a candidate like Kerry can pull it off, and what would such a "Stay Home America" campaign do for his ~mandate~ and down ticket candidates?

(And we've already established that any terrorist attack after 10 Sep 2005 will be the resposibility of the President inaugurated on 20 Jan 2005, because 8 months is plenty of time to reverse all the policy mistakes of his predecessor.)

Raoul:

No one's ever satisfied with any politician, are they? Some polls even count the answer "Fair" to the question about a president's performance as a negative response.

I share Raoul's confusion regarding the polls. Either the national polls don't reflect facts on the ground or the local polls are off somehow. Perhaps the polls will begin to make more sense as the summer ends.

AWW:

As long as the questions are skewed to favor Kerry (and diminish Bush), the polls won't make sense. I doubt if any polling data will be coherent until after a debate. One thing is for sure: if Kerry is behind or just even in CA and NJ and MN on Oct. 1, the election is over, even if the press won't report it.

I don't have quite the same instinctive sense that the proprieter of this wonderful site does, but I am getting closer to it. Kerry looks more and more like Adlai Stevenson, and he even seems to be proud of it. If Bush can translate that sort of spread downwards into the Congressional races (as in 2002), it will be very interesting to watch Dan, Peter, and Tom (and WolfJudyBill) around 8:05 PM on Nov. 2. Of course, Kerry could run like Humphrey, but Humphrey was an incumbent with a good record of integrity. Kerry is nouveau riche and already stale.

And what is the significance of Minnesota?

Ken - Gore won Minnesota in 2000 - not sure of the margin but I'm thinking by 5-8 pts. So Minnesota is an example of a Dem state in 2000 that Bush seems to be close to taking this year (see caveats regarding polls above).

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