May 15, 2004

50-0 FILES:

KGW poll: Oregonians split over presidential race (ABE ESTIMADA, May 14, 2004, kgw.com)

Among Oregonians who voted in two of the past four elections, President Bush leads John Kerry in a race for the White House, according to a Northwest NewsChannel 8 poll.

That doesn’t bode well for Kerry because likely voters who have consistently cast ballots in the past are likely to turn out again for November’s general election, said Mike Riley, head of Portland-based Riley Research Associates that conducted the scientific poll for Northwest NewsChannel 8.


If the Senator were going to have any shot in this race he'd have put away the Pacific states by now. Instead this is a state where a seemingly safe Democratic Senate seat could be in danger in a big enough blowout.

Posted by Orrin Judd at May 15, 2004 7:45 AM
Comments

Don't put your money on the polls. It's too early and I think the samples are too small to be anything other than intersting indicators.

That said, the left coast polls sure are interesting. But, if you read the entire article it really indicates it will be a horse race and swing voters will call the winner. I suspect the pollster is not so subtley encouraging the Kerry supporters to get out and vote, by addressing their complacency.

Over-optimism encourages complacency.

Posted by: genecis at May 15, 2004 11:57 AM

Bush has a secret weapon here in Oregon: former Governor and Senator Mark Hatfield. Much beloved by Democrats and Republicans alike, and a life-long pacifist, Hatfield strongly supports Bush on this war. When he is finally deployed, it'll be curtains for Kerry.

Posted by: Tonto at May 15, 2004 2:03 PM

Aren't OR and WA much more equally divided between Blue coastal cities and Red everywhere else than CA? Just because we hear so much about McDermott and such Seattle craziness doesn't mean that the states are 100% Democrat by any means.

Posted by: brian at May 15, 2004 2:30 PM

Brian (if you're still out there)

Short answer: yes. However, WA seems to be more safely in the Kerry column than is OR, for reasons which are not at all clear to me. I think OR has picked up more of the "Republican flight" from CA over the past decade.j

Posted by: Tonto at May 15, 2004 4:29 PM
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