THE WMD NON-ISSUE:

Public Gives Bush a Long Leash on 9/11, but Little Slack on Iraq (Ronald Brownstein, April 12, 2004, LA Times)

[T]he commission is likely to reinforce a central strand in public opinion: Though polls show most Americans don't think Bush had a clear plan for combating Al Qaeda before Sept. 11, they don't think Clinton — or almost any other relevant leader or institution — did enough either.

That widespread belief has two major implications for the 2004 campaign. First, it means that based on the information available so far, most Americans recoil from efforts to blame Bush for the attacks. One leading Democratic interest group recently asked a focus group in Florida to respond to a potential television ad accusing Bush of negligence in failing to stop the attacks. The result was volcanic — against the ad.

"They were so angry I thought they were going to turn the tables over," said a Democratic operative who watched the session. "It was a very polarizing ad, and it pushed people who were on the fence decidedly away from us."

Second, the sense that everyone failed before Sept. 11 — almost by definition — means most Americans are likely to judge Bush more on his actions since then. That helps explain why even in polls released since Clarke's criticism, most Americans still give Bush positive marks for his handling of terrorism. The judgment is so stable because it is rooted in experience: the absence of another major terrorist incident inside the U.S. since Sept. 11.

But the inclination to measure Bush more by his decisions after Sept. 11 than before underscores his vulnerability on Iraq, as violence and chaos spread. In almost all polls, at least half of Americans say they still support the initial decision to invade Iraq, despite the failure to find the weapons of mass destruction Bush and his aides cited as the principal justification. The reason, many opinion analysts agree, is that most Americans think the region, and the United States itself, will be more secure if Iraq becomes stable, pro-Western and democratic.

WMD was not, of course, the primary justification for the war--except when Tony Blair was trying to sell it at the UN--which the American people seem to recognize quite clearly. The forced democratization of Iraq was the point and the insistence--even violent--of the Iraqis that we leave and let them govern themselves suggests that it is a project that can succeed.

Posted by Orrin Judd at April 13, 2004 2:18 PM