April 27, 2004
THE DRAFT DODGER (via Bruce Cleaver):
John Kerry Must Go: Note to Democrats: it's not too late to draft someone-anyone-else (James Ridgeway , April 27th, 2004, Village Voice)
With the air gushing out of John Kerry's balloon, it may be only a matter of time until political insiders in Washington face the dread reality that the junior senator from Massachusetts doesn't have what it takes to win and has got to go. As arrogant and out of it as the Democratic political establishment is, even these pols know the party's got to have someone to run against George Bush. They can't exactly expect the president to self-destruct into thin air. [...]What to do? Look for the Dem biggies, whoever they are these days, to sit down with the rich and arrogant presumptive nominee and try to persuade him to take a hike. Then they can return to business as usual--resurrecting John Edwards, who is still hanging around, or staging an open convention in Boston, or both.
Well, it can't be any worse for Bob Shrum than having to withdraw New Coke. Posted by Orrin Judd at April 27, 2004 6:06 PM
While this secnario has been mentioned elsewhere, it's hard to see Kerry willingly giving up the nomination, after plotting a path to the presidency for a third of a century. Peeling off the delegates before the convention and behind Kerry's back is the other possibility, but once that strategy got out in the open the intra-party bloodletting -- presumably Kerry vs. the Clintons -- would be something to watch at the Fleet Center.
Posted by: John at April 27, 2004 7:11 PMOJ--
What would happen if the Democrats really did nominate someone else? Would it matter if they did it now, or at the Convention?
Posted by: Brian (MN) at April 27, 2004 7:12 PMBrian:
A couple years ago I would have said people would be so outraged at their flouting of their own process and dogma that it would be disastrous, but after the Toricelli deal they'd seemingly pay no price at all in the media. Their problem is they have no one to replace him with. The only two realistic choices are Edwards, who was such a lightweight even Kerry beat him and Hillary who would get a full court press on all her background stuff right at the moment you're supposed to be laying out an agenda, who is likewise a NorthEastern liberal, and who also has Senate votes she'd have to explain.
Posted by: oj at April 27, 2004 8:01 PMA convention fight would be such a disastrous appearance of disunity that even if the hard left sucked it up and took it, there would be no hope of drawing anyone in the center ("if these people can't run a campaign, how can they be trusted with National Security") what plays in the People's Republic of New Jersey won't play nationwide.
Posted by: MarkD at April 27, 2004 8:13 PMFor a party whose leaders lack principles and only seem to seek power for power's sake, the message that any of them could be forcibly removed from a nomination after winning by following the party rules would be too chilling. The party couldn't consider it.
Posted by: Matt C at April 27, 2004 8:32 PMThe only way this works is if Kerry agrees and withdraws his name. As he's been waiting for this all life and is absolutely convinced that he'll win, I think that's a low probability.
Posted by: David Cohen at April 27, 2004 9:04 PMDavid--
You live in MA still, correct? Do you really think that Kerry believes he'll still win? What's the feeling among Bostonians and Democrats (but I repeat myself...)?
Posted by: Brian (MN) at April 27, 2004 9:26 PMI spend very little time with either, but I am fully believe that John Kerry is convinced that he is destined to be President.
Posted by: David Cohen at April 27, 2004 9:46 PM"after plotting a path to the presidency for a third of a century"
I assume that he started in high school 50 years ago.
It would be a bloody fight and probably wind up in the courts.
The Democrat Party would split into Regular (Kerry), Clinton (Its all about me) and Radical (Nader -- Kucinich) wings.
The election turns into a walk over. The Democrats join the Federalists in the attic. Thr future of the political system in the US is a fission of the Republican Party into a Liberal Party based on the tenents of classical free market liberalism -- low taxes and small government -- and a Conservative Party -- based on the social thought of Orrin Judd.
Posted by: Robert Schwartz at April 27, 2004 10:13 PMA split in the Dems at the top won't matter as much as competing slates for Congress, the Senate and at the state level, splitting the vote and allowing the GOP to win even in what were Dem safe districts with as little as 35-40% of the vote.
I can't see how we get to that point any time soon, but then I'm not very imaginative. But I'd love to see the Green Dems devolve into a US version of the Canada's NDP, with there being two responsible, adult parties to choose from once again.
Well, it can't be any worse for Bob Shrum than having to withdraw New Coke.
Actually they did not with draw new Coke for a long time. They brought back Coke Classic. Then the stopped promoting new Coke. Then the killed new coke. It took a while.
Posted by: Robert Schwartz at April 28, 2004 12:53 AMI like Robert Schwartz's fantasy of Democratic Party collapse followed by Republican Party "readjustment". Ahh.. Conservative Party based on "social thought of Orrin Judd", and exactly what telephone booth would they hold their convention.
Whenever the Democrats decide to commit suicide, perhaps Republicans should not interfere. Just be quiet as a mouse.
Posted by: h-man at April 28, 2004 11:19 AMh-man...shh!...not so loud.
Posted by: Bartman at April 28, 2004 11:40 AMIt's hard to believe the Democratic Party can survive without turning towards European-style Red-Green policies.
Posted by: oj at April 28, 2004 11:53 AM