April 27, 2004

OH, VERY YOUNG, WHY DID YOU LEAVE US THIS TIME?:

The Vanishing Young Kerry Voter (Newsweek, 4/22/04)

Sen. John Kerry, who once held a commanding, double-digit advantage over President George W. Bush among young Americans, now finds himself in a statistical dead heat with the president among voters aged 18-29, according to the latest NEWSWEEK/GENEXT poll. While Kerry currently leads Bush within the margin of error, 45 percent to 42 percent, back in February 56 percent of 18-29 year-olds said they supported the senator versus 42 percent who said they would vote for Bush. advertisement
The decline for Kerry among young voters comes as the candidate appears to be losing ground overall. An AP/Ipsos poll of registered voters taken at the time of the GENEXT poll showed Bush leading Kerry within the margin of error, 45 percent to 44 percent. Eight weeks ago, Kerry led Bush 48 percent to 45 percent in a NEWSWEEK poll. [...]

Clearly, some young voters have turned away from Kerry for the same reasons as older citizens. But the GENEXT poll indicates that the presumptive Democratic candidate’s strength among the youth vote has been disproportionately dissipated by the entrance of independent Ralph Nader into the presidential race. In the latest GENEXT poll, the consumer advocate earns 11 percent of the under-30 vote. While Nader’s showing is down 1 point from a month earlier, it still is nearly double the 6 percent of voters who said they would vote for him in the AP/Ipsos poll of all voters.

Nader says his main appeal lies with voters who the major political parties have previously turned off. And 29 percent of respondents in the GENEXT poll who said they were likely to vote for Nader said they wouldn’t vote at all if he had not entered the race. Still, 49 percent of GENEXT Nader voters said they would vote for Kerry if they didn’t vote for Nader, compared to only 20 percent who said they would vote for Bush.


President Bush would be crazy to debate Senator Kerry without Ralph Nader being invited.

Posted by Orrin Judd at April 27, 2004 8:38 AM
Comments

You got that song stuck in my head, you monster.

Posted by: some random person at April 27, 2004 9:48 AM

If you're gonna have earworms, would you rather have Cat Stevens or John Kerry?

Posted by: Mike Morley at April 27, 2004 11:24 AM

Cat Stevens converted to the Religion of Peace and took the Nom de Guerre of Yuseff Islam.

Posted by: Robert Schwartz at April 28, 2004 12:12 AM
« IF THIS IS FASCISM COULDN'T WE PLEASE MAKE HIM FIRST AGAINST THE WALL?: | Main | QUIET?: »