April 24, 2004
IT'S THE ECONOMY, SILLIES:
Bush Campaign Readies New Advertisements Attacking Kerry on National Security Issues (JIM RUTENBERG and ADAM NAGOURNEY, 4/25/04, NY Times)
The Bush advertisements open at a military staging ground somewhere in the desert, teeming with tanks, fighter jets and soldiers. But the matériel begins to vanish from the screen as an announcer ominously lists the military spending cuts Mr. Kerry supported."John Kerry has repeatedly opposed weapons vital to winning the war on terror," the announcer says.
Strategists from both parties said that national security remained the threshold issue for Mr. Kerry, meaning he must establish his credibility as a potential commander in chief before undecided voters will listen to his appeal on other issues. From the moment Mr. Kerry first began running for president, he argued to Democrats that he could at least neutralize the president's advantage on foreign policy because of his status as a decorated Vietnam veteran and his years in the Senate.
But even some Democrats say Mr. Kerry has yet to accomplish that. Jim Gerstein, the executive director of Democracy Corps, a Democratic research organization, said focus groups by his organization had found that Mr. Kerry has yet to break that barrier, though he said that television advertisements Mr. Kerry began broadcasting last week would help him.
"The role of commander in chief is a bigger part of this election than it has been, and because of that there's a higher threshold to pass," he said. "If you don't pass that threshold they won't consider you as president."
His lack of credibility won't help any, but it's the economy that makes the election unwinnable for Mr. Kerry. National security is a sideshow and will fade even further into the background over the course of the Summer, disappearing from the campaign by Fall. Posted by Orrin Judd at April 24, 2004 11:24 PM
It's a little much to say national security issues will be a "sideshow." About a quarter of voters are so anti-war they'll vote for Kerry and Nader no matter what. There will likely still be some fighting in Iraq, which will be on people's minds. Any terror attack before the election will be a factor. And lots of Bush's votes will come from people who support him on the war and fear the retreat Kerry would lead. All in all, I think Bush will still win, but national security will be a central issue, though perhaps not the central issue.
Posted by: PapayaSF at April 25, 2004 1:01 AMAgree with PapayaSF, in the sense that you (OJ) are expressing a confidence in what is motivating voters far beyond what present evidence indicates.
There have been elections in which the economy was not a factor at all. (1968,1972). Granted domestic racial issues were important in the 1968 election. The 1972 election "should" have been about the economy, however neither McGovern nor Nixon were proposing policies that would have prevented the hyper-inflation of the late 70's.
Are you saying that the 2002 mid-term elections were about the economy?
PapayaSF correctly noted that the passion driving the Left at this time is the War, not minimum wage laws or even the tax laws. For instance, with slight modification of style Howard Dean could have been the nominee and surely that was not about economics. (I consider Kerry a mere default candidate, after Dean panicked and/or flipped out). Hope you are right and that I'm wrong.
The 2002 elections, as all mid-terms, were about partisan identification.-Republicans won in Republican districts and states.
Presidential elections are about the economy and incumbency (with voters routinely tiring of the party in power after a while).
McGovern just scared people.
Posted by: oj at April 25, 2004 8:33 AMh:
Dean lost. The 5 % of the population that totally opposes the war would also oppose Bush for believing in capitalism. War is just a convenient excuse for their current rage--had 9-11 never occurred they'd still be protesting GATT.
Posted by: oj at April 25, 2004 8:36 AMThe economy is still at risk. Any serious uptake in interest rates, driven by the threat of inflation, will burst an enormous bubble in bonds and derivatives. The stock market is still in bubble territory in terms of valuations. This rebound in the economy was purchased with an unprecedented mountain of debt. GWB will be very lucky if there is no downturn prior to the election.
Posted by: Robert Duquette at April 25, 2004 12:06 PMRobert, you valetudinarian...
Posted by: oj at April 25, 2004 12:32 PMI resent that! I had to look it up first, but I resent it now.
Don't fret for me Mr. Grasshopper, bask in the summer sunshine. My gold investments are up 200% from last year, but I am just a worry-wart ant, stockpiling for the winter.
Posted by: Robert Duquette at April 25, 2004 1:57 PMRobert:
I'll bet your gold has dropped by about 15-20% in the past 6 weeks.
Posted by: jim hamlen at April 25, 2004 9:09 PMJim, yes they have. I counted that in the 200% figure.
Posted by: Robert Duquette at April 26, 2004 2:30 PM