OJ, If Bush wins 50 states I will send YOU a book.

Maybe I'm being picky, but to me, "The conventional wisdom is always wrong" sounds an awful lot like conventional wisdom.

Jeff - my similar point is that isn't Dick Morris part of the CW? I think Bush will do well but in the past I've taken whatever Morris says and believed the opposite.

Yes, Jeff beat me to the punch on the contradictory nature of OJ's closing line. Somewhat like "All generalities are false."

No one who's part of it actually doubts the conventional wisdom though: they all believe that WWII was the good war, Darwin was right, homosexuality is biological not psychological, the New Deal worked, David overcame the odds to beat Goliath, and Eric and Julia Roberts are two different people.

Isn't Morris the guy who gets everything wrong ? I mean, he predicted a Gore presidency and a stunning Democratic victory in 2002. This should really worry Bush.

Peter:

He was right about Gore.

Kerry's a bit crap but there's no reason why he shouldn't do at least as well as Mondale.

OJ, it seems I have been mistaken for almost four years now. I always thought that it was George W. Bush who took office on January 20, 2001.

Well, you can't keep those sons of privileged families apart, I guess.

Ali:

Mondale lost 49 and barely held his own overwhelmingly Democratic state. MA is trending Republican.

Peter:

Yes, but Gore won the election.

If MA goes for Bush, I'll eat you a book. How do I tell this post apart from whistling past the graveyard, in light of Bush's latest approval ratings, and specifically the 53 percent disapproval of his Iraq policies? It seems to me that an increased focus on terrorism, as opposed to the economy, can only hurt him.

Mr. Murtaugh;

Could it not be that even more people disagree with Kerry's prospective Iraq policies? I don't find it hard to believe in a significant number of voters who think Bush's Iraq policy is bad but that Kerry's would be even worse, so they'll vote for Bush. I'd be willing to put up money that more voters asked themselves "why does Fallujah continue to exist?" than asked "why can't Bush get us out of Iraq?".

If the Marine actions taking place this second were being televised, Bush's approval rating would go back up to 70%. So much for the hand-wringers.

Jim and AOG makes a great point. Just because a high percentage of people dislike the Iraq policy does not mean they all agree with what that policy should be. I would bet that a majority of people are against the Iraq policy because we are not being ruthless enough. I'm one of them.

Charlie -

Has the economy become so good that you are now hiding behind Bush's "weakness" on the issue of terrorism? What, have you lost faith on his other weaknesses such as confronting judges who make wrongs constitutional rights? Oh what was his other achiles heel before that? Oh yes, he pronounces nuclear, nucular. My God.

Well, I congratulate you on your ability to change the subject. But until your guys have the courage to have a view on any one of these issues, no Bush "weakness" is going to make it past the op-ed pages of the NYT and the Globe.

That said, I think oj's 50-0 is an impossibility. I believe that there is enough of a core in the Democratic party and in the urban clots and college towns from whom hating Bush has become their sacred vow. Secular America has finally found their Passion, and i Michael Moore they already found their Mel Gibson. If that's the club to which you want to belong, hey, it is a free country; and the rest of America will continue to ensure it remains that way.

Charles:

On July 1 it ceases to be an issue.