March 2, 2004
WHY 40% = 60-40:
Bush ads target base, Hispanics (The Associated Press, March 01, 2004)
The campaign also has made courting Hispanics a major part of its ad strategy. Ads will start next week on Spanish-language networks Univision and Telemundo in markets in New Mexico, Florida, Nevada and Arizona, advisers say.Posted by Orrin Judd at March 2, 2004 11:04 PM“President Bush feels that it’s very important to reach out to citizens throughout this country who may not have English as their native tongue,” said Scott Stanzel, a campaign spokesman. “Our media and advertising campaign will reflect that effort.”
Hispanics traditionally have favored the Democratic Party in presidential elections, but support has dropped in recent years. In 1996, 72 percent of Hispanics voted to re-elect President Clinton, versus just 21 percent for Republican Bob Dole. Four years later, Democrat Al Gore won 62 percent of the Hispanic vote compared to 35 percent for Bush.
States with large Hispanic populations, such as Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico and Florida, were competitive in 2000, with contests being decided by 6 percentage points or fewer. They are considered in play again in 2004.
“If the Republicans take 5 (percent) to 10 percent of the Hispanic vote, they’re going to kill the Democrats in those key states,” said Joe Velasquez, a Democratic consultant with Moving America Forward, a group trying to mobilize Hispanic voters.
This is one reason why GWB's stand on gay marriage is going to end up helping him. Latinos tend to be very socially conservative - which language do the words "macho" and "machismo" come from? - and I've never heard of them being a particularly gay-friendly ethnic group.
Posted by: Joe at March 3, 2004 5:41 AMJoe -
Well, perhaps that is true, and I certainly hope the Dems make the mistake of portraying their opposition to same sex marriage in those terms. It will certainly alienate them. A more appropriate rationale (especially when considering that Latino females appear to share the opposition) would be more simple: they are conservatives at heart and religion plays an important role in their culture. By the way, the same applies to African Americans and most other Blacks.
Posted by: MG at March 3, 2004 7:02 AMMG - I've also read that African Americans are generally more socially conservative and against gay marriage, abortion etc. But as always the question is whether they vote on the issues (which would imply a decent GOP percentage of their vote) or stick to the Democrat party affiliation (which gives Dems 90% of their vote)
Posted by: AWW at March 3, 2004 8:04 AMAWW --
With Latinos (except Puerto Ricans) there is a decent short-term chance to scoop up a percentage of the vote (all lost "profit" to the Dems), and to position for a long-term balance. With African-Americans the short-term goal is to make them question why on Earth they want to bother voting if they are allowed to vote only Dem. The payback for the GOP would still be small in terms of new overall GOP votes, but it could make it harder for the Dems ability to hold on to Southern Senate seats.
Posted by: MG at March 3, 2004 8:54 AMAfrican-American theology is slightly more complex than indicated by the above. One explanation is theological to the extent that African-Americans place considerable emphasis on the Old testament story of Moses leading his people out of bondage to the promised land.
Fast foward to modern America, if you are white (even if you are Jewish) you are the Pharoah. The Democratic Party seems to be very accomodating to this idea, since leftists seem to have similiar ideas. This Pharoah versus Jews (actually African-Americans) trumps mere concerns about gay marriage etc. Regarding generalized opposition to abortion, you've got to be kidding youself if you think that is a priority, since you only have to look at the statistics regarding African-American abortion rates.
Posted by: h-man at March 3, 2004 8:55 AMh-man,
I was at a right-to-life rally and an African-American preacher stated that out of every 1000 births to African-Americans over 660 were aborted. I was shocked. I never knew that the stats were that high. Also, wasn't there a comment made by a pro-abortion advocate that African-Americans would eliminate themselves through the abortion process?
Posted by: Bartman at March 3, 2004 1:38 PM