THE SHI'ITE FACTOR:

The Hizbullah factor (Olivier Guitta March 4, 2004, Israeli Insider)

Hizbullah, which literally means the Party of God, is a Lebanese Shia terrorist network created in 1982 with the unconditional support of Iran and Syria. Its sole goals were to defeat Israel and kick foreign forces out of Lebanon. It got very soon into the limelight by orchestrating deadly suicide attacks in Beirut in 1983 against the U.S. Embassy - 63 dead - the U.S. Marines Barracks - 241 dead - and the French Marines barracks - 58 dead. Before September 11, Hizbullah was the terrorist organization that had killed the most Americans in the world. That is why Richard Armitage, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, called Hizbullah the "A-Team of terrorists" while Al Qaeda might be the "B-team."

What is going to be the impact of the latest prisoner exchange for Lebanon?

Let's not forget that the Lebanese government, which is just a puppet in the hands of Syria, since the latter is the de-facto ruler of Lebanon with an occupying army of 25,000 men, has been totally absent and played no role whatsoever in this exchange: it left the field open for Hizbullah.

Hizbullah came out as the clear winner in these negotiations. It is the new symbol of Arab pride: this victory feels good for the Arab street. Hizbullah remains in most minds as the only Arab victor on Israel because of the Israel Defense Forces withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000.
In light of the recent prisoner exchange, Hizbullah, already with 12 representatives in the Lebanese Congress, can become the major surprise in the forthcoming Lebanese elections. With its popularity rising, it is then not too crazy to envision Hizbullah turning into a major political force. [...]

Most Lebanese journalists affirm that Hizbullah has no other choice than to become a regular political party and give up the "armed resistance," i.e. terrorism. This might be especially true if under U.S. pressure, Iran and Syria stop their support to Hizbullah. Nevertheless, Nasrallah keeps on repeating that nothing has changed in his organization's goals and that the "military" (aka terrorist) activity is the essence of his movement. In light of its success, he adds that his team is going to kidnap other Israeli soldiers in the near future to gain leverage over Israel.

Hizbullah in one way or another is far from dead. After the IDF withdrawal from Lebanon and now the release of prisoners, Hizbullah as a terrorist entity is irrelevant and has no raison d'etre. It is at a crossroads: will it capitalize its victory on a political front or just remain a terrorist organization, or do both?

One would think that the creation, with American connivance, of a Shi'astan in Iraq and the desire of both reformers and conservatives in Iran to improve relations with the U.S. would be a powerful incentive to focus on developing a normal (non-terrorist) Shi'a state in Lebanon.

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 4, 2004 11:46 AM