March 5, 2004
THE PARTY OF OSAMA AND OBAMA:
Obama, Ryan lead Senate races (ANDREW HERRMANN AND SCOTT FORNEK, March 5, 2004, Chicago Sun-Times)
Barack Obama has pulled ahead of M. Blair Hull in the Democratic bid for U.S. Senate, while on the Republican side, Jack Ryan has widened his lead, according to a new poll.While recent news coverage of Hull has centered on claims by his ex-wife that Hull hit her when they were married, some 46 percent of likely Democratic voters polled had not heard of his contentious divorce.
The poll of 1,500 likely voters, by the Chicago Sun-Times' sister paper, the Daily Southtown, put Obama, a state senator from Hyde Park, in the driver's seat with 28 percent, followed by Hull, an Old Town trader, at 23 percent and Illinois comptroller Dan Hynes, of North Center at 22 percent.
A similar Southtown poll two weeks ago, had Hull leading Obama 27 percent to 17 percent.
For the GOP, the latest poll of Republican votes, taken Wednesday, shows Wilmette banker Ryan had 44 percent, followed by Aurora dairy magnate Jim Oberweis at 18 percent and Glenview businessman Andy McKenna at 10 percent -- about the same as two weeks ago.
The GOP has gone from likely to certain to keep this seat. Posted by Orrin Judd at March 5, 2004 12:42 PM
If Ryan doesn't at least ask for an endorsement from Tom Clancy, I'll be terribly disappointed...
Posted by: Will Collier at March 5, 2004 12:48 PMWill - Seven of Nine (Ryan's ex-wife) would be a bigger vote impact, especially among young males. On that note saw somewhere else that Dems/media are asking for Ryan to disclose his divorce papers to see if there are any bombshells in their like Hull
Posted by: AWW at March 5, 2004 12:54 PMIf he has a campaign manager named Mr. Clark, or an Hispanic Outreach Coordinator named Domingo Chavez, I'm not sure I want to know about it.
Posted by: Mike Morley at March 5, 2004 12:57 PM"...Obama, a state senator from Hyde Park..."
That would be the neighborhood where the University of Chicago is located, deep in the heart of the friendly and beautiful South Side of Chicago.
OJ,
As an Illinois resident privy to some inside info, I can only say that there are issues with Ryan.
It isn't that he's not a good on the issues. It's that he will be savaged for innuendo (he and Corzine both quit Goldman under "undisclosed" circumstances, and he too has "divorce" issues with the saucy "7 of 9".
If he wins, he better come out swinging, and keep swinging from March through Nov.
BB:
Anyone outside of Cook County going to vote for a black Senator?
Posted by: oj at March 5, 2004 1:34 PMIt isn't just Ms. Obama's personal characteristics that will make this a walk for Mr. Ryan. Without Hull's millions to finance the campaign, from where do the Democrats think they're going to attract funds. Without soft money, Kerry and the DNC will have to suck dry every available hard-dollar penny for the presidency. There will be little left for down ticket races. I'm beginning to believe the 60-40 hype.
Posted by: "Edward" at March 5, 2004 1:38 PMOJ and Edward,
I admire your optimism and it warms my soul, but I live here.
Yes, dingbat soccer moms will support Obama in droves. He is as white as a black guy could be, and more and more of us are beyond that color thing anyway.
He has a good story, and will beat the "extremeist" drum bloody - If you've seen any of the R's, they don't seem to have the heart to stand up to the pounding the left will heap on them.
Then there is the machine......
Obama is the best opponenet for sure, but a push over in a state with a 500,000 (250,000 of them might not even be fraud) margin for Gore, he isn't.
Rauschenberger will be the best on the stump and in debates, but has no money. Ryan, McKenna, and Oberweis can self finance, but will be torn to shreds (based upon what I've seen so far) in the media and debates.
Send me $5 million and I'll beat Obama. Heck, I'll carry Bush across the finish line.
Posted by: BB at March 5, 2004 2:12 PMBB:
The worst day of my democratic life was in 1992, voting futilely against Clinton, Moseley-Braun, and Rostenkowski, so I hope for your sake you're wrong. NH is much more pleasant, with just about every single seat in the State going Republican.
Posted by: oj at March 5, 2004 2:20 PMSome GOP operative ought to take a close look at the classes Obama has taught at the University of Chicago law school over the past few years. Anybody who's been to law school knows that "Voting Rights and Equality" is code for "race resentment 101." He's a bolshy, but a pretty nice guy (unlike, say, his fellow professor Cass Sunstein, who is personally a desperately evil and corrupt man), and he's been doing radio gigs (NPR, etc.) for long enough that he comes across well in media. Good voice, attractive, sounds responsible. He'll be a tough candidate to beat.
Posted by: Random Lawyer at March 5, 2004 2:54 PMWe can only hope Ryan wins.
Posted by: Sandy P. at March 5, 2004 3:12 PMThat's RYAN? He was married to the Borg babe?
Posted by: Sandy P. at March 5, 2004 3:18 PMOJ:
Remember Carol Mostly-Brown?
Obama is every white liberals' wet dream. Very impressive to hear him speak, if you don't pay too close attention to what he is saying. I see a number of his posters in my neighborhood.
I am not paying a lot of attention to the divorce controversies but I remember Ryan saying his divorce file is public record with some parts (like addresses) being protected due a stalker problem and his ex-wife and child.
Posted by: Rick T. at March 5, 2004 3:56 PMOJ - you used to live in Chicago? Did not know that. Were you in law school or something? In 92 I voted for Perot (yeah I know, I'm a dumbass) and I know I didn't vote for that lightweight Moseley-Braun, but don't remember who she was running against - was it Paul Simon?
Rick:
But there's no Al Hofeld, no year of the woman and no George HW Bush.
Posted by: oj at March 5, 2004 5:10 PMJeff:
The Wife was in Med School. Moseley-Braun snuck through the primary when Al Hofeld went hammer and tongs after Alan Dixon--if I'm remembering this all right. There was a Reaganaut on the GOP side--pretty good candidate--but he got swamped in the anti-Bush/anti-tax tide.
Posted by: oj at March 5, 2004 5:13 PMblack prof from Hyde park. I'll wager he is not Daley's candidate then.
Posted by: Robert Schwartz at March 5, 2004 11:34 PMI also assume Ryan is gay.
Posted by: Robert Schwartz at March 5, 2004 11:36 PM