March 19, 2004
THE COMING ARAFAT ENDORSEMENT OF KERRY WON'T HELP:
Reading the minds of Jewish voters: President Bush's policies toward Israel have been pretty favorable; Kerry has never been a leader on Israel-related issues. How will the Jews vote? (Mitchell G. Bard, March 19, 2004, Jewsweek)
In 1916, Republican presidential candidate Charles Evans Hughes won 45% of the Jewish vote, but lost the election. Four years later, Warren Harding won 43% of the Jewish vote and the presidency. Since then, Eisenhower (in 1956) is the only Republican who won as much as 40% of the Jewish vote. On average, Republicans have received less than 25% of Jewish votes since 1916. That could all change this year.In 2000, George W. Bush received only 19% of the Jewish vote in large measure because Al Gore was viewed as a good friend of Israel and most Jews suspected Bush would inherit the policies of his father, which were widely regarded as the most hostile toward Israel since Eisenhower. Four years later, few Jews would question that President Bush's policies toward Israel have been, if not the most favorable in history, pretty darn close.
No one believes Bush will win a majority of the Jewish vote, but he has a good chance of reaching the levels achieved by Eisenhower, Harding, and Hughes. Jewish Republicans suggest there is a realignment taking place as Jews become more conservative, but Jews remain the most liberal group of voters other than African-Americans, and the constituency that is most likely to vote against its economic interests. Some of the data from the last midterm election supports the idea of a realignment, but it is too early to tell. If Bush does as well as many expect, it is less likely to be a result of a Jewish shift to the Republican Party, which still has social policies that do not sit well with most Jews, than because of their support for his approach to foreign policy and the lackluster Democratic alternatives. [...]
The truth is the Jewish vote does matter. Though the Jewish population in the United States is roughly six million (about 2.3% of the total U.S. population), roughly 89% live in 12 key electoral college states. These states alone are worth enough electoral votes to elect the president. Therefore, it can make a difference in the outcome if the Jewish vote shifts.
If only they were Zionists. Posted by Orrin Judd at March 19, 2004 2:24 PM
Too many Jewish voters -- espeically those urbanites who never get out among the rest of the country -- are too willing to believe the worst about the Republican Party, because of events that transpired two generations ago. For those people, all Kerry will have to do is throw them some sort of bone between Labor Day and Election Day, and they'll stick with what they're comfortable with (though some of the more rabid anit-Bush people in the Democratic Party, who can't decide if GWB or Ariel Sharon best represents Hitler, could scare enough of the Jewish vote over to the GOP column on their own to make a difference in one or two states).
Posted by: at March 19, 2004 2:47 PM#1 misses the point.. of course quite a lot of people consider themselves 'lifelong' Dems and won't switch --- but the Dems can't possibly improve on 81% (!)
I think Bush deserves, and will get, a statistically significant increase in both Jewish votes and $ contributions (for discussion sake, say 12-15%) -- enough to carry Florida and probably some others..
any gain at all will help a lot and the gain GWB is gonna get ain't small potatoes ..
Posted by: JonofAtlanta at March 19, 2004 3:49 PMFirst, ethnic identification still means a lot in american politics. In 2000, the mere fact that Joe Liberman was on the D ticket meant that a lot of Jews voted D regardless of the Republican Candidate.
Second, Bush, pere, was perceived by many Jews as having been in the Saudi's hip pocket, and having pushed Israel too hard on Oslo. They were naturally concerned that his son would follow the same policies.
Third, this is an old population. Many of them were born in the 20's grew up in the Depression and came of age in WWII. They are yellow dog Democrats and the only thing that will keep them from voting Democrat is death. Their children may be a bit more flexible and their grandchildren may start to vote like their SES.
OTOH, there are a lot of Jews for whom terrorism and anti-semitism are the number one issue. My mother, who loved Adlai madly, has said she will vote for Bush, of course, she no longer remembers what day of the week it is, so maybe she will and maybe she won't.
Posted by: Robert Schwartz at March 19, 2004 4:17 PM