THE BROWNS ARE RED:

The Red-Green Divide Over Human Enhancement (James Pethokoukis, 03/30/2004, Tech Central Station)

Having spoken with many enhancement advocates, it seems pretty clear to me that they, for the most part, think the cultural momentum is moving in their direction. Just look, they point out, how we are already enhancing themselves. College students are already using Ritalin to enhance their concentration for exams. Human growth hormone has been approved for healthy short kids. Demand for cosmetic plastic surgery continues to soar. In 2003, more than 6.9 million procedures were done -- 41 percent more than a year earlier, according to the American Society of Plastic Surgeons. Interest in plastic surgery has grown so much that it's now the subject of reality shows on ABC and MTV. And as soon as embryonic stem cells are shown to cure some disease or tinkering with the germline is shown to prevent some horrific malady from ever occurring, "the debate over them will be over," as UCLA's Gregory Stock, author of the book Our Inevitable Genetic Future, told me recently.

Except ... that Hispanics and blacks, who by 2050 will compose 39 percent of the population, both display strong culturally conservative values and -- along with evangelical whites -- may form formidable political obstacle to new biotechnologies. Take the issue of abortion, which serves as a handy stand-in for attitudes toward cutting-edge biotech since both touch on the issue of what it means to be human. A 2002 Pew Research survey found that more than 55% of both registered Latino and African-American voters believe that abortion should be illegal in most or all cases -- ten points higher than whites. When asked whether abortion is "unacceptable, 79 percent Hispanics who identified themselves as Roman Catholic -- about 70 percent of respondents -- agreed that it was vs. 53 percent of white Catholics. (Even 53 percent of self-described "secular" Hispanics found abortion "unacceptable" vs. 22 percent of secular whites.) And a 2001 Survey USA poll of attitudes of New Yorkers towards stem cell research found that only 38 percent of Hispanics and 44 percent of blacks thought such research ethical vs. 68 percent of whites.

Religious commitment, of course, plays a big part in that divergence. Another 2002 Pew Research poll of attitudes toward federal funding for stem cell research found that individuals with a high level of religious commitment (based on factors such as how often individuals pray and attend church services) opposed such funding in far greater numbers than low commitment individuals. Roughly 48 percent of black with a high religious commitment, for instance, opposed such stem cell funding vs. 22 percent of those blacks with a low commitment. For Hispanics, it was 44 percent vs. 32 percent.

Now unless we are about to enter a Star Trek world where religion seems to have disappeared, it appears likely that over the coming decades both demographic and technological trends will turn America's current red-blue divide into a red-green divide (like the colors in a traffic light) -- "red" for those religious Hispanic, blacks and evangelical whites who will want to stop human enhancement, and "green" for those more secular Hispanics, blacks and whites who will want to go forward with it.

This is the dynamic that George W. Bush comprehends but many others on the Rioght are oblivious to.

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 30, 2004 8:18 PM