March 6, 2004

STILL JARVIS COUNTRY?:

California Vote Is a Red Flag for Kerry (Robert E. Grady, March 5, 2004, LA Times)

One of the major reasons voters booted then-Gov. Gray Davis was that he increased spending by a whopping 50% in five years and raised taxes. Republicans Arnold Schwarzenegger and Tom McClintock captured 49% and 13% of the vote, respectively. Memo to Kerry strategists: Republicans got 62% of the vote in this "heavily Democratic" state.

Schwarzenegger's magic is still working, as the two initiatives he put his credibility on the line to support — Proposition 57, which refinanced the state debt, and Proposition 58, which mandated a balanced budget in each fiscal year going forward — passed with 63% and 71%, respectively. So Proposition 56 didn't just founder because California voters weren't in the mood for ballot measures.

The lesson here provides a clear guide to victory for Bush and a clear warning for Kerry. Given the choice between people who will reduce their taxes, as Bush has with two tax cuts, and candidates who will raise them, as the senator from Massachusetts proposes to do, voters will opt for the cutters every time.


Though they got burned last time, CA is the gutsy play for Bush/Rove. And, arguably, regardless of whether that emphasis pays off there, just being seen with guys like Arnold Schwarzenegger, Rudy Giuliani, and John McCain--who you'd think ccould all be drafted for such a play--would be a significant boost nationwide.

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 6, 2004 11:22 PM
Comments

But some cities are suing to stop the bond issuance.

Posted by: Sandy P. at March 7, 2004 1:52 AM

Having a bunch of cities run by liberal Democratic mayors filing -- and given the California court system likely winning -- suits to overturn the voters' prefrence on the bond issue in the middle of the presidental and California senatorial campaigns just does not sound like a grand, incisive strategy, except possibly in the eyes of Bob Mullholland or some of the other state party operatives.

Repubulicans in the state already have the gay marriage rulings and the ruling mandating Catholic hospitals and clinics in California provide contraceptive devices to get voters angry about judicial overreach. Toss in a rulling nullfying voters' decision on the bonds and state spending caps, and Kerry may end up blowing half his campaign budget on the West Coast just to keep California in play.

Posted by: John at March 7, 2004 9:26 AM

Yep-- make Kerry play defense over California and he won't have any money to cause trouble in places like West Virginia, Ohio, Missouri or evenhold on to Penn. or Wisconsin. To use a cliche-- sometimes the best defense is to go on the offense.

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at March 7, 2004 6:21 PM

You guys talk as if California could go with Bush. Do you really think there's a chance?

Posted by: Bartman at March 7, 2004 6:24 PM

The last three Republican presidents all won it. It has a Republican governor. Why couldn't he?

Posted by: oj at March 7, 2004 7:28 PM

He better get Florida back first... poll on FoxNews tonight showed Kerry ahead in Florida. It's still early, but that's something to worry about.

Posted by: MarkD at March 8, 2004 8:42 PM

Kerry is polling ahead of, or even with, Bush in a number of states that Bush won in '00.

It's far too early to worry about that.
If it's still like that in August, then worry.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen at March 9, 2004 3:41 AM
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