PREDICTING A CLINTON WIN?:

Poll finds pessimism about U.S. direction (Susan Page and Richard Benedetto, 3/15/04,USA TODAY)

Americans are increasingly gloomy about the state of the economy and the direction of the country, a Gallup Poll has found. That state of mind is a warning flag for President Bush as his re-election campaign begins in earnest. (Related item: Poll results)

In the poll, 60% said they were dissatisfied with "the way things are going in the United States at this time." Except for a survey two weeks before the invasion of Iraq a year ago, that is the most negative reading since 1996.

The question about the general direction of the country is one of the fundamental judgments voters make in deciding whether to support a president for re-election. That makes the public's pessimism, if it persists, a serious problem for the Bush campaign.

"The reality is that when people are dissatisfied with the country's direction, they tend to vote for change, and when they vote for change, they tend to vote out incumbents," says Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster and adviser to the likely Democratic candidate, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry.

Except in 1996.

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 16, 2004 8:34 AM