March 5, 2004
KERRY STARTS WHERE HE'LL FINISH--MID-40's:
Bush, Kerry neck and neck in latest Associated Press pollAssociated Press, March 5, 2004)
John Kerry and President Bush are starting the general election campaign tied, according to an Associated Press poll, while independent Ralph Nader is drawing enough support to make Democrats squirm.The Republican incumbent had 46 percent support, Democrat Kerry had 45 percent and Nader, the 2000 Green Party candidate who entered the race last month, was at 6 percent in the survey conducted for the AP by Ipsos-Public Affairs.
The Bush team should insist that Nader be included in debates.
N.B.--the poll is of registered voters--rather than likely--so Mr. Bush is likely up 5%+ in the real race.
Posted by Orrin Judd at March 5, 2004 5:17 PMMy favorite line from the article: "Bush, who had solid backing from 37 percent, did well among whites, men, Protestants, homeowners and suburban dwellers."
Is that all? Reminds me of folks saying the Passion would only appeal to Christians...
Posted by: brian at March 5, 2004 5:54 PMNot sure about Nader - he might make Kerry look centrist and more reasonable by comparison.
Let's see what the polls say in about a month or so after Kerry has dropped out of the limelight a bit and Bush has begun to campaign.
AWW:
That's the point--as Kerry is forced to the center on the war it will alienate the hardcore anti-war folk and Nader provides them an outlet. He stands to do better this time than last.
Posted by: oj at March 5, 2004 11:34 PMMy prediction is that Nader will fizzle, and affect the outcome in no states, even with the backing of the "hard-core anti-war" crowd.
If Iraq continues to be fairly quiet, at least with regards to US troops being killed, then the anti-war crowd will largely forget that it exists, and focus on other issues.
Posted by: Michael Herdegen at March 6, 2004 2:03 PM