March 2, 2004
IF IT WAS ALL ABOUT THE OIL, WE WON:
A Revival for Iraq's Oil Industry as Output Nears Prewar Levels (NEELA BANERJEE, Feb. 29, 2003, NY Times)
Iraq's oil industry has undergone a remarkable turnaround and is now producing and exporting almost as much crude oil as it did before the war, according to officials with the American-led occupation and the Iraqi oil ministry.Posted by Orrin Judd at March 2, 2004 8:38 AMA month before the April 1 deadline set by Iraq and American officials for restoring the industry to prewar levels, the country is producing 2.3 million to 2.5 million barrels a day, compared with 2.8 million barrels a day before the war. [...]
In the north, exports have been stymied by attacks on the pipeline leading to an export terminal in Turkey. But the Northern Oil Company recently tested the pipeline and shipped a few million barrels of oil to Turkey.
Attacks on the pipeline dropped to 8 in January and February from 47 in the last three months of 2003, according to coalition officials — a sign, they said, of the success of a new Iraqi oil police trained under an American contract. [...]
What American experts discovered on arriving here was an industry frozen in the 1960's. An American oil expert said that one measure of the inefficiencies that must be addressed is the performance of Iraqi refineries. They can only convert about 50 percent of the crude oil they process into marketable fuel and lubricants; refineries in the United States convert 75 percent to 80 percent.
American officials said it would take five years at a minimum for the industry to reach a reasonable level of efficiency and 10 to 15 years for Iraq to have a modern industry, at a cost that could reach $30 billion.
I read elsewhere that pre-war refers not just to pre March 2003 war but pre-Gulf War, when Iraq was producing unconstrained by resource-limiting sanctions. Is this correct? If so, sloppy reporting of an even bigger accomplishment.
Posted by: MG at March 2, 2004 9:18 AMoj --
I did a quick, single-source, check (from a graph, so some eye-balling). It looks like the peak for Iraq oil production historically was about 2.9 mm bbd (in 1989)and that level was reached for just one year. (A few years before, in the mid-80's they were at about 1 to 1.5 mm bd.) Of course, production dropped very sharply before, during, and right after the war, to 0.5 mm bd. So in essence, in the last six months production has been brought almost to levels that were rarely attained in peace time. (Potential is for 1 to 3 mmbd more, depending on how soon and investment.)
Posted by: MG at March 2, 2004 9:48 AMWith Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain giving their non-blessings to the American initiative to democratize the region (cultural reasons make it all inappropriate, they solemnly declared), it seems that the only horse left to bet on is the one called more pressure on Israel.
Alas, the problem is too much pressure still won't be enough.
So we'll have to Wait til after the elections. In the meantime, the State Department is rolling up its sleeves and putting on the latex gloves.
Posted by: Barry Meislin at March 2, 2004 4:23 PM