FROM OUT OF THE CATACOMBS:

Gibson could make $200 mil off 'Passion': Filmmaker financed film himself, reaps profits (Hollywood Reporter, 3/11/04)

Before Mel Gibson launched "The Passion of the Christ" in movie theaters across North America, insiders speculated that the controversial film might hurt the filmmaker's acting career.

The real question is whether Gibson will ever need to work again given "Passion's" divine profits. Not only has "Passion" managed to turn around what was a decidedly lackluster year at the box office, it's also impacted on Hollywood in ways that are likely to alter how the film industry does business for years to come. [...]

In the U.K., where "Passion" doesn't kick off until March 26, it's likely to perform very well, driven again by the country's large core audience of Christians.

In fact, in the U.K. the arrival of "Passion" is apparently being seen as a way to attract new parishioners. News reports Monday said four churches in England's southeastern county of Kent have block-booked some $37,000 worth of tickets that they plan to give away at no cost in an effort to add people to their congregations. Reuters quoted an official of one of those churches, Russ Hughes, the director of worship and prophecy at St. Luke's, as saying, "This is the greatest opportunity for the Church in the last 30 years and if we did not use it we may not get such an opportunity again."

In any event, Icon's international profits should be very considerable. If we're looking at $100 million in domestic profits, it's not unreasonable to figure $200-250 million (and possibly more) in international profits.

While "Passion" is still a long way away from its DVD and home video release, it's clear that home entertainment revenues will represent yet another major profits stream for Gibson and Icon. At this point, it's hard to calculate what those profits will be since we don't know when the DVD will be released, what bonus features it will have or how it will be priced.

Nonetheless, the film clearly has a built-in audience that can be expected to want to own a copy of it. If we're looking at $400 million in domestic theatrical grosses, we could be looking at $400 million more in DVD and home video sales. [...]

After the Christian Right immediately put it on the blockbuster charts, "Passion" began to attract whoever else was left.

This was not what anyone anticipated, especially not the distributors who turned Gibson down when he was trying to put a domestic deal together for the film. While no one is saying precisely who those distributors were, they clearly know who they are and they're likely to be kicking themselves for a long time to come. It's hard to fault them, of course, because nothing about this film should have convinced them to do anything but try to distance themselves from the controversy it was generating from the get-go.

They had to have had in mind the TV news images of angry pickets protesting in front of then-MCA chairman Lew Wasserman's home when Universal Pictures released Martin Scorsese's "The Last Temptation of Christ" in 1988. To the global media moguls who rule Hollywood today, the upside-downside considerations here were clearly weighted in favor of protecting the downside from the effects of religious controversy when there was apparently so little upside potential at the box office. After all, religious theme films aren't known -- correction, weren't known -- for doing big business.

Now it's quite another ballgame. With an upside as mouthwatering as the one Gibson's enjoying from "Passion," Hollywood isn't likely to stay on the sidelines for long. As literary material goes, the Bible is attractive to Hollywood because not only does it feature well developed storylines and colorful characters, but it's a brand name book that's in the public domain. Studios looking to develop franchises could undoubtedly get a few good ones going here.

While it's true that many of the Bible's most familiar stories have been mined by Hollywood in the past, producers who now address the same material the way Gibson's done in his R rated "Passion" could find themselves satisfying the moviegoing appetite of this newly emerging audience.

A far more fundamental question is implicated: if the film has tapped into the culture and shown Hollywood to be the counterculture, then the question isn't whether the Hollywood will grasp at religious themes, but why the religious need turn to Hollywood. For example, why would Mr. Gibson go to a studio to make his next film?

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 12, 2004 9:57 AM