EXHUMING MACARTHUR:

IRAN’S CONSERVATIVE AGENDA: BUILD “AN ISLAMIC JAPAN” (Banafsheh Keynoush, 3/03/04, EurasiaNet)

Conservatives have largely shrugged off the outside criticism. In the domestic arena, conservatives are hoping that widespread public apathy towards politics, evident prior to the election, will hold, thus diminishing questions about the new parliament’s legitimacy.

Conservative leaders have made it clear that they do not believe political pluralism is conducive to overcoming Iran’s myriad social and economic challenges. Accordingly, they will likely seek to place firm limits on basic democratic rights, including freedom of speech and an independent press. In general, conservatives will seek to expand the state’s authority over civic and religious institutions. At the same time, conservatives may aim to relieve some of the building discontent among Iran’s vast under-30 population with well-targeted, yet largely token moves that ease some social and political restrictions.

To a large extent, the conservatives’ political fortunes will be tied to their ability to solve the country’s deep economic dilemmas. According to some estimates, conservatives will have to create 800,000 jobs a year to ease the country’s chronic unemployment problem. The next parliament is thus expected to push through economic reforms designed to create jobs and satisfy rising demand for consumer goods. Ali Haddad Adel -- whose conservative Abadgaran (Renovators) Party won almost all the seats in Tehran, and who stands to become the next parliament speaker -- has already announced that he intends to turn Iran into “an Islamic Japan.”

The Islamic (or totalitarian) Japan ended in two mushroom clouds. Presumably he wants to turn it into the Americanized Japan of the post-war period--and that means liberalization.

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 8, 2004 8:57 PM