March 10, 2004
CHOOSE DEATH:
The Trouble With Germany (NY Times, 3/10/04)
Germany is in the grip of a profound malaise. The economy contracted by 0.1 percent last year and is headed for growth of only 1.5 percent this year. Unemployment stands at 10.3 percent. Huge public deficits are running afoul of the pact that Germany itself forced on euro-zone members. Consumers and investors lack confidence. The reasons for the problems are no mystery: a lavish welfare system, which the state can no longer afford, and high labor costs, which send businesses elsewhere. The Germans know all that full well, just as they know that they need to make deep and painful changes if they are to turn things around and resume that economic miracle of which they used to be so proud. The trouble is that they are not willing to accept the consequences. Chancellor Gerhard Schröder has had to pay a heavy political price even for the meek and woefully inadequate welfare, labor and tax reforms he has attempted. A quarterly charge of 10 euros for health care was enough to create a major furor. Social Democrats got a drubbing in local elections in Hamburg on Sunday, and Mr. Schröder's own standing in the party is so low that he had to give up the party leadership.The chancellor plans to make a major speech to the nation on March 25. It's a good opportunity for him to try to persuade his countrymen of the immediate and urgent need for a thorough overhaul of the entire economic apparatus, including the antiquated system of centralized wage-bargaining, the byzantine tax system and the bloated budget. A bold wave of reform would remind Germans that they have not lost the capacity for the hard work, innovation and sacrifice that created the postwar miracle.
If it weren't so sad it would be amusing the way these folks continue to believe the Europeans retain such capacities and will accept some personal sacrifice just to preserve their societies. For what? For the children they don't have? For the immigrants they despise? For the sake of ideals they no longer believe in? Posted by Orrin Judd at March 10, 2004 8:56 AM
I don't know if Americans should be lecturing Germans on "making sacrifices"; especially in light of the huge bribe that was just paid to keep the very Bismarkian Medicare system afloat.
Posted by: Gary Gunnels at March 10, 2004 9:47 AMthe HSA's and means-testing were all that mattered. Getting them cost some money up front.
Posted by: oj at March 10, 2004 9:50 AMoj,
Actually, they are meaningless; indeed, they are "experimental," as the legislation clearly states. It was a bribe; a very fat bribe with no "sacrifice" to it. Which is of course why all the medicare commercials paint it as a bribe; medicare hasn't changed, you just get more of it!
Posted by: Gary Gunnels at March 10, 2004 10:01 AMAll social tinkering starts out experimental, but the party in power shapes the experiment. That'll be the GOP for decades, soon with a filbuster-proof majority in the Senate. That or the system goes bust. Either way we win.
Posted by: oj at March 10, 2004 10:10 AMOrrin, you're on a different planet. America is about to elect Kerry (his lead keeps increasing) and the Dems are never going to drop below 40 senators. In fact, they may well take the Senate back in a few years.
The Germans like Kerry overwhelmingly too. Scratch an anti-american and you'll find a Kerry supporter.
Posted by: Genecis at March 10, 2004 12:02 PMThe future of Europe:
BREAD AND CIRCUSES!
BREAD AND CIRCUSES!
BREAD AND CIRCUSES!
(scimitar goes *slice*)
ALLAH-U AKBAR!
ALLAH-U AKBAR!
ALLAH-U AKBAR!
Peter-
Your boy Kerry takes six states at most. At this stage in the campaign his numbers are not untypical. Include the #'s for Mr. Nader and Kerry loses 50-46 at best. The love affair with social statism and the "multi-lateralism" preached by your guy goes nowhere, nationwide.
Unless Mr. Kerry is able to disavow his record or the Bushies run the most incompetent campaign in history the election is a lay-up.
Posted by: Tom C., Stamford,Ct. at March 10, 2004 12:38 PMIt's much harder to kill a program, even an "experimental" one, than it is to start one up. Look at how hard it was to kill off a welfare system everyone agreed was corrupt, inefficient and not doing anyone any good. So the fact that HSA do exist means that the most likely course is that they will continue to exist.
Let's also take a page from the Left's script and do our own incrementalism-- every session of Congress should see an effort to expand HSAs. Eventually, all the old-folks who are enamoured with Medicare and Social Security will die off, and with them the demand for their continued existence.
Gary:
All welfare systems are bribes of one kind or another.
Posted by: Peter B at March 10, 2004 1:37 PMTom, he ain't my boy. I have a better taste than that. I thought his number weren't going to last, but he's beating Bush all over the place for almost two months now. It's getting scary.
Posted by: Peter at March 10, 2004 1:55 PMI think Peter must be going for the same strategy that oj(?) went for before the 2002 midterms--believe the worst is going to happen, either due to pessimism or not wanting to jinx things.
Chin up. It's March. His numbers aren't going to last, because no one likes him.
Posted by: brian at March 10, 2004 2:02 PMUS$ 50/yr for health insurance ?
Outrageous !!
Posted by: Michael Herdegen at March 10, 2004 5:29 PM