March 16, 2004
A HISTORIC OPPORTUNITY:
Stability under a strongman (The Japan Times, March 17, 2004)
As expected, Russian President Vladimir Putin was re-elected by a landslide in Sunday's presidential election. His leadership now seems almost unchallenged. Opposition parties are weak. Parliament is obedient. Key government posts are held by Putin loyalists. Mr. Putin's tightened grip on power may bolster political stability, but his authoritarian instinct is raising concerns about the future of Russia's fledgling democracy.President Putin need not worry much about the legislature, in which the pro-Putin ruling bloc commands an absolute majority. Nor does he face any significant criticism from within the government. Immediately before Sunday's election, he dismissed Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, a one-time loyalist to former President Boris Yeltsin. Mr. Putin's victory is a prelude to a more assertive second term. The key word here is stability, though perhaps a better word would be domination. Indeed, the political situation in Russia appears to be revolving around a sole strongman. On his watch the Russian administration is likely to enjoy a spell of "superstability."
Mr. Putin deserves his victory. The election showed most Russians to be more or less satisfied with his performance in his first term. His vigorous economic and foreign policy has received a solid vote of confidence. In his second term he is likely to even more actively pursue his "strong Russia" agenda for doubling the country's economic output and for playing a larger role on the world stage.
For Japan, a strong Russian presidency will be welcome if it can jump-start stalled diplomatic negotiations on pending issues left over from World War II, notably the dispute over the Northern Territories, a group of islands northeast of Hokkaido. Commenting on Mr. Putin's re-election, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda said it is "desirable in terms of the consistency of negotiations for a peace treaty," which is tied to a territorial settlement.
A period of authoritarian stability is precisely what the country needed, but now it's up to Mr. Putin to use it wisely, something all too few men ever have--Franco, Pinochet, & Trujillo come to mind. If he works to establish property rights, the rule of law, an independent judiciary, military, church, and civil society, he could be Russia's salvation. If he's in it just for the power and futile dreams of empire, then it's hard to see any future at all for Russia. Posted by Orrin Judd at March 16, 2004 8:19 PM
Aside from Putin's, (and apparently most Russians'), irrational desire to hang onto Chechnya, nothing I've read suggests that Putin has dreams of Empire.
He's been very practical in his reductions of Russia's armed forces and nuclear warheads.
We were lucky to have Washington. Although his ascent to power was democratic, he likely could have perpetuated that power by authoritarian means.
oj: Thank you for reminding me of Trujillo. Haven't heard much from the Dominican Republic for the past several decades (it is a good sign that you know a third world country only through its shortstops). Consider its dysfunctional neighbor to the west.
Posted by: Fred Jacobsen (San Fran) at March 17, 2004 1:49 AMI would think Russia's irrational desire to keep Chechnya has more to do with the oil in that region as opposed to managing the savagaes that live in the district. Putin has the appearance of being levelheaded and realistic of where Russia stands on the global scale. But I am more convinced than ever that Putin, like the rest of Russia always has been and always will be without a plan, and therefore without focus on how to get there. That country and their people just sort of exist. They are so big, and with so much brainpower that we expect so much more, but it's not happening, they are a convoluted cloudy existence of a country, at best. Not to mention, but in general, they can't really be trusted.
What is a shame is if they were focused, with all of their oil, intelligence and ability to fight ferociously, could be our biggest win/win ally to date. The rewards of putting our heads together to rid the world of the savages while benefitting our countries of the other's resources is so great is why we still have any stock in this country at all. Not to mention that if we do alienate them the potential for their damage is great, with all their wmd's, untrustworthy characters and somewhat desperate level of economic disparity.
Posted by: neil at March 17, 2004 6:55 AMFred:
Vargas Lllosa wrote a really good novel about the DR a couple years ago:
http://www.brothersjudd.com/index.cfm/fuseaction/reviews.detail/book_id/265/
Posted by: oj at March 17, 2004 8:41 AMEvery time Putin tries to do something with a (new) major weapon, it sinks or crashes or self-destructs. But he keeps trying.
Posted by: jim hamlen at March 17, 2004 1:41 PMjim:
Yet there are still people who think the USSR was a threat even with such weaponry.
Posted by: oj at March 17, 2004 2:33 PMThe USSR was a threat.
After the fall of the Soviet Union, when Western inspectors were able to get a good look at Russia's nuclear missile capabilities, they found that it was possible that 1/3 of the USSR's missiles wouldn't have launched, and of course we know that their guidance systems were crude, compared to the US'.
Still, that leaves thousands of nuclear warheads exploding within a few miles of their targets, including all of the US' population centers.
That sounds threatening to me.
As to Russia's technological capabilities: There is only one nation on Earth currently capable of reaching the International Space Station, and it ain't America.
Russia still does a few things well.