THE CHILDREN'S CRUSADE:

Showdown over democracy's boundaries in Iran: Main reform party considering parliamentary election boycott to protest hard-liner 'blocks.' (Scott Peterson, 2/03/04, CS Monitor)

"Now [politics] is so completely polarized," says a veteran Iranian observer in Tehran who asked not to be named. The conservatives are "happy and singing, because they think they will soon control the [parliament], and the presidency after that, in elections for 2005," says the observer. But he notes that even some conservative columnists are questioning whether the complete defeat of the reform movement is wise.

"The conservative strategy before was to drive a wedge among the reformists, to tame the opposition," he says. "Now the attitude is absolutist and heavy handed."

Iran's press is steeped with analysis about the crisis, with conservative papers insisting on a vote as scheduled. Like most reform newspapers, however, Sharq struck a gloomy note, saying that accepting the "imposed" conditions of the Guardian Council "is ultimately the realization of the slogan: 'Death to reformists.'"

But the reformists are not going quietly. President Khatami warned on Sunday of the risks of an undemocratic outcome of the crisis. "Those who are tuned to the will of the nation will survive and those who stand against the people are doomed," he said, quoted by Iran's official news agency.

The Guardian Council has yet to rule on a second request by the interior ministry, tasked with organizing the vote, to postpone balloting. Student groups are asking for a permit to protest on Wednesday; such rallies have sparked antiregime clashes.

"This is a clear indication of the defeat of the attempt to reform the Islamic Republic legally," says the veteran observer. "Maybe from now on, there could be a radicalization."

Time to take it to the streets.

Posted by Orrin Judd at February 3, 2004 7:26 AM