February 16, 2004
NOTHING MORE PATHETIC, HE TOLD THE NATIONAL REVIEW:
Kerry Nation?: Don't bet on it. (Fred Barnes, 02/23/2004, Weekly Standard)
Bush has one thing, and probably two, to fall back on. The first is the economy. There's every reason to expect growth of 4.5 percent to 5 percent in 2004. But will it be a jobless recovery? Not likely. The Bush economic team projects 2.6 million new jobs this year, wiping out the losses of earlier years. The Federal Reserve figures on 1.5 million to 2 million. The Blue Chip Forecast of top economists pegs job growth at 2 million. They all may be lowballing. In the 1990s, a year with 4 million new jobs was followed by a year in which 3.5 million were created. Several quarters posted job gains of one million. In any case, no president seeking reelection--and unchallenged for his party's nomination--has lost with an economy like this.There's always Iraq, where everything depends on the turnover of sovereignty on July 1. If it goes well--which means neither civil war nor anarchy--the Iraq issue will remain a positive for the president. If the immediate result in sovereign Iraq is mixed, Bush may still claim success. The recently intercepted memo from terrorist leader Abu Musab al Zarqawi suggests anti-American diehards are rapidly losing heart.
Nothing is more pathetic in the Washington political community these days than tremulous Republicans and conservatives who whine about how Bush may lose to Kerry. Well, he might, but don't bet on it. A simple rule is worth recalling: In politics, the future is never a straight-line projection of the present. The media may think polls showing Kerry ahead of Bush in February are predictive of what will happen on November 2, but that's foolishness. The primaries will end in a few weeks and the Kerry phase of the campaign will fade. Unless Bush stumbles badly, the next phase will be his.
It's a well trod point, but worth recalling: just because the news cycle is 24 hours these days doesn't mean the election will be over a day from now. Posted by Orrin Judd at February 16, 2004 10:54 AM
Yeah, it is hard to argue against history; however, the Republicans beat history in the 2002 election by not losing seats. Bottom line, it is going to be very difficult to beat President Bush in November because Kerry isn't the greatest candidate in the world. With that said, on paper the Yankees are supposed to win the World Series every year and they don't. We shall see in November.
Posted by: pchuck at February 16, 2004 11:02 AMThe partisan tilt of the playing field, as demonstrated in 2002, suggests history may not favor W after all?
Posted by: oj at February 16, 2004 11:16 AMAnybody who's paying attention knows that there are places in the cycle that favor either the incumbent or those wishing to replace him. We are currently in a phase that favors the latter, and when the Dems hold their convention there will be another, and the last few days of October, when the Dems do their traditional dirt dump (after accusing the GOP of planning an "October Surprise"), will be the third.
What will be interesting is to see what and how the Dems will do to generate interest between the wrap-up (this week?) and their convention. I expect,at a minimum, a mini-frenzy as JF***Kerry goes looking for his perfect Veep. (And how much attention will be paid to that person's military record if they don't have one?) Dole tried to use his resignation from the Senate, but that flopped like everything else he tried, so I'd expect JF***Kerry to not give up his seat, but the Dems to find a way to gin up some votes he can use to show his courageous stands against the oppressive GOP majority.
True pchuck, but the yankees do always beat the that Boston team.
Posted by: h-man at February 16, 2004 12:32 PMBaseball is too sacred for you to sully with politics. Relax. Time will Tell. The Sky may fall between now and November but it probably won't. By November the Public will be thoughly sick of Lurch and will send him back to Boston.
Posted by: Robert Schwartz at February 17, 2004 1:30 AM