February 10, 2004
NOT IN THE MOOD TO SURVIVE:
SINGAPORE SWINGERS: Romance, the Patriotic Duty of Procreation and the Fate of Nations (PETER EDIDIN, February 8, 2004, NY Times)
For most people, it's fun to spend Feb. 14 wrapped in a heavily commercialized atmosphere of love and lust. In Singapore, however, romance is a matter of national survival.As Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong proclaimed four years ago, "We need more babies!"
The problem is that the fertility rate, the average number of children born to each woman of child-bearing years, has fallen well below the "replacement level" of 2.1 required to maintain the city-state's population. By the year 2030, 20 percent of the population will be over 65, if current trends continue.
The government identified the falling birth rate as a threat as far back as the 1980's. In response, it formed a "Working Committee on Marriage and Procreation," which presumably has been working but has so far not found a solution.
One obstacle is that Singaporeans don't appear especially, or even adequately, eager to have sex.
In an annual global sex survey conducted by Durex, a condom manufacturer, Singapore ranked last, for the second year in a row, among 34 nations in the frequency with which men and women reported having sex. (Hungary is No. 1.)
According to another study, of 1,000 Singaporeans under 40, conducted by Prof. Victor Goh of the National University of Singapore, only 25 percent of men and 10 percent of women wanted sex more than six times a month.
Hoping to libidinize the people, the government-controlled newspaper, The Straits Times, has published articles like "Let's Get on the Love Wagon," with tips on finding secluded trysting places. And censorship laws, which until recently banned Cosmopolitan and "Sex in the City,'' are slowly being relaxed.
The government has also created an annual "Romancing Singapore" festival in February, "held to celebrate love, romance and relationships," according to The Straits Times.
This year, the festival will include a cologne, created by students from Singapore Polytechnic's School of Chemical and Life Sciences, formulated to create "a mood for love and romance."
Beyond that, there are two official matchmaking agencies, the Social Development Unit (for university graduates) and the Social Development Service (for everyone else). The government is particularly concerned about birthrates among the well-educated, as Singapore's shifts toward high-skill industries like software design. [...]
Is any of this working? Apparently not. Last year, only 37,633 babies were born in Singapore, which has a population of about four million. It was the lowest number in 25 years.
"We have to change people's mind-sets so they think of making babies as something that's happy," Lee Hsien Loong, the incoming prime minister said last month.
Don't worry, the Darwinists assure us this'll all balance out. Posted by Orrin Judd at February 10, 2004 7:57 AM
A state that can stamp out gum chewing ought to be able to promote er, well, uh....
Or am I presuming to much here?
Posted by: Barry Meislin at February 10, 2004 10:21 AMOh, it'll balance out whether they do anything or not, but they may be happier with the new balance one way than another.
Posted by: Mike Earl at February 10, 2004 10:29 AMIt will balance out when the trendline becomes horizontal--extinction, for instance, means the population rate of change becomes zero. Permanently.
It has been known to happen. Nothing un-Darwinian about that.
Posted by: Jeff Guinn at February 10, 2004 11:51 AMVoluntary extinction?
Posted by: oj at February 10, 2004 12:01 PMExtinction due to maladaption to the environment. It's the fate of 99.9% of all species (although you'd think that a Designer would have a higher success rate :-)).
Posted by: Annoying Old Guy at February 10, 2004 12:53 PMBut they (we) aren't maladapted--they're perfectly adapted, yet choosing not to survive. It is intelligent design and completely anti-Darwinian.
Posted by: oj at February 10, 2004 1:30 PMOrrin:
You don't understand. "We" exercise freedom and choice. Everyone else is in the grip of inexorable, evolutionary forces that are driven by the environment.
Posted by: Peter B at February 10, 2004 5:58 PMDarwinism is not a force, and it does not compel or even encourage anybody to do anything. It just keeps score.
Therefore Orrin's crack is meaningless, except in demonstrating that he does not know what Darwinism is.
Populations vary under natural selection, up and down over time. For humans the only meaningful figure, as far as Darwinism is concerned, is 500-- the minimum popluation required to keep deleterious recessive mutations from building up because of inbreeding.
It will take a while for Singapore to get down to 500.
Posted by: Harry Eagar at February 10, 2004 7:17 PMHumans don't breed well in captivity.
Posted by: Robert D at February 10, 2004 8:36 PMHumans don't breed well in captivity.
Posted by: Robert D at February 10, 2004 8:36 PMChina got to a billion even with Mao killing off 60 million.
Posted by: oj at February 10, 2004 8:40 PMMr. Judd;
If they're choosing not to survive, they're maladapted by definition. That's a problem with "soft" systems, they can get out of true much more easily than "hard" ones. Culture is a "soft" system, because it consists of modifiable information. (Genes, in contrast, are "hard" because they can't be changed) Soft systems are far more adaptive, but much more prone to self-reenforcing errors. If you want to take a higher level view, it's the Singapore culture that would go extinct, not the gene mix (since it's basically the same as ours). As long as the overall benefits of culture are greater than local failures like Singapore, culture is an overall win evolutionarily.
What other laws of nature can we overcome simply by the exercise of free will?
Posted by: oj at February 11, 2004 5:11 PMDarwinism is not a law of nature. Spencerism was claimed to be, but by philosophers.
Posted by: Harry Eagar at February 11, 2004 7:36 PMFitness is the result of a cross product between organisms and environment. If the environment changes, then previously adapted organisms might not survive.
OJ fails to note that extinction happens to species, not individuals. Harry has mentioned founder events. An example would be free-will. Humans have allegedly possesed it for quit some time. That is the founder event.
Then along comes the Pill, allowing free-will to operate on reproductive decisions with virtually no resistance. That, along with the differing worth of child labor in a post-industrial v. pre-industrial society, means the environment has changed radically in less than 150 years.
The result could well be our extinction, and that would be completely consistent with evolutionary theory.
Posted by: Jeff Guinn at February 12, 2004 3:06 PMJeff:
I agree. All evolution resembles such intelligent design as that you describe.
Posted by: oj at February 12, 2004 4:53 PMBased on your so called agreement, you clearly don't understand what is going on.
Particularly the "design" part.
Posted by: Jeff Guinn at February 13, 2004 8:09 AM"allowing free-will to operate on reproductive decisions...completely consistent with evolutionary theory"
I agree--evolution is a function of the will and design of an intelligent being or beings, as you said.
Posted by: oj at February 13, 2004 8:18 AMsome kinds of evolution might be designed.
'natural selection' refers to a kind of evolution which is not designed.
that's what you have problems in understanding.
Posted by: Brit at February 13, 2004 8:46 AM"some kinds of evolution might be designed"
There you go--it only took a few months.
Posted by: oj at February 13, 2004 9:31 AMyou can be very childish sometimes.
Yes, some kinds of evolution are designed. Like the evolution of models of car. Or computer programs. They're designed.
But not Evolution. I think that's natural selection (my opinion).
You think Evolution has design in it (fair enough - that's a matter of opinion).
But, even after a few months, you also think natural selection has design in it, which, by definition, it doesn't (not fair enough, that's a matter of conceptual error).
Posted by: Brit at February 13, 2004 9:43 AMNo, I think the fact that because, as you both acknowledge, design looks no different than nature, we must say we have no idea what's driving evolution.
But you're both opening your minds, which is the first step towards a healthy skepticism.
Posted by: oj at February 13, 2004 9:56 AMsince my position has not budged one iota in conversing with you, i'm intrigued as to how you have reached the conclusion that my mind is 'opening'...
but i thank you for the kind sentiment
Posted by: Brit at February 13, 2004 10:04 AM"some kinds of evolution might be designed"
"But not Evolution"
Posted by: Brit at February 13, 2004 10:22 AMBut since the two would be indistinguishable you've no idea whether that's true or not.
Posted by: oj at February 13, 2004 10:26 AMcars are designed by car designers over a few years and they usually own up to it.
Evolution has taken millions of years and nobody's owned up to designing it yet. Apart from some guy who reckoned he'd got the job done in a week.
I think we can distinguish the different types of evolution.
Posted by: Brit at February 13, 2004 10:34 AMHow?
Posted by: oj at February 13, 2004 10:40 AMah..well the interesting question is: given that we're sceptical about the guy who said he did it in a week, and nobody else has owned up to it...is there any possibility that NOBODY AND NOTHING designed it, and it all happened by natural processes and chance?
darwin thought there was a possibility.
he didn't think "natural selection" designed it.
dawkins doesn't think "selfish genes" designed it.
they all think nothing designed it.
Posted by: Brit at February 13, 2004 10:51 AMOf course that's a possibility--in fact it's equally possible.
Posted by: oj at February 13, 2004 10:57 AMand that's what the theory of natural selection says: that evolution was not designed at all.
'Modern synthesis' adds detail to the theory by incorporating stuff we've learned about genetics since darwin was around.
You don't have to buy the theory that nothing designed evolution. I've just been trying to get you to see that there IS a theory that says nothing designed evolution.
However, some of us see reasons to think that the non-design theory makes more sense than the theory that something did design evolution.
Posted by: Brit at February 13, 2004 11:06 AMAnd vice versa. There are two equally plausible theories--because each is wholly self-contained and not a science--and which you choose depends only on your predetermined philosophy. That's what Mayr says too. It's all just a narrative and you choose the one that renders the world you wish existed.
Posted by: oj at February 13, 2004 12:15 PM