February 18, 2004

IT'S EDWARDS TIME:

Competition Back in Race (TODD S. PURDUM, 2/18/04, NY Times)

In this unsettled Democratic primary season, time has been John Edwards's friend, and competition has always inspired John Kerry, and on Tuesday the restless voters of Wisconsin gave both men a bit more of each.

Senator Kerry racked up another victory, but Senator Edwards's surprisingly strong second-place showing here gives him the ability to argue that the 29 days since the Iowa caucuses have not been enough time to pick his party's best-tested nominee. [...]

Mr. Kerry had hoped Wisconsin would make him the near-nominee with just such support, allowing him to showcase an array of pragmatic policy positions on topics like tax cuts, trade and gay marriage that he contends can make him competitive in November

Instead, this iconoclastic state gave Mr. Edwards more evidence for his own lawyer's case that a mere month of voting should not produce a verdict just yet. He came in a close second and won the support of about half the primary voters who made up their minds within the last three days, according to a survey of voters leaving the polls.

With Wisconsin allowing independents and Republicans to vote in its open primary, the senator from North Carolina also won the support of roughly 4 in 10 non-Democrats, compared with about a quarter for Mr. Kerry.


It'll be interesting how Senator Edwards does if this is down to a two man race. Exit polling continues to suggest he's the toughest opponent for President Bush, garnering much higher support from independents and Republicans and, in one of those delicious twists, outpolling Mr. Kerry handily among the wealthy, as his two America's song and dance appeals to the guilty upper middle class white folk he's castigating.

One last bit of bad news for Mr. Kerry was that he hardly did any better among veterans than Mr. Edwards, suggesting the Vietnam issue is one of the media obsessions that normal Americans don't much care about.

Posted by Orrin Judd at February 18, 2004 12:00 AM
Comments

"One last bit of bad news for Mr. Kerry was that he hardly did any better among veterans than Mr. Edwards, suggesting the Vietnam issue is one of the media obsessions that normal Americans don't much care about."

Just so. If nothing else, time has had its effect; it's now just about as long since the end of the Vietnam War, in 2004, as it was since the end of World War II in 1976, and I don't seem to remember anyone making much of a fuss about who did and didn't serve in WWII back in '76 either.

Posted by: Joe at February 18, 2004 5:42 AM

"One last bit of bad news for Mr. Kerry was that he hardly did any better among veterans than Mr. Edwards, suggesting the Vietnam issue is one of the media obsessions that normal Americans don't much care about."

Just so. If nothing else, time has had its effect; it's now just about as long since the end of the Vietnam War, in 2004, as it was since the end of World War II in 1976, and I don't seem to remember anyone making much of a fuss about who did and didn't serve in WWII back in '76 either.

Posted by: Joe at February 18, 2004 5:43 AM

Agree that Edwards would be the tougher candidate for Bush. Will the Dems realize this in time? Will they try have their cake and eat it to with a Kerry-Edwards ticket?
Conventional wisdom was that a drawn out Dem primary helped Bush by having the Dems spend a lot of time and money determining their candidate. The opposite of this is that Bush can't really begin to attack the nominee until he is known - much like an NFL defense can have problems if it doesn't know which quarterback it is facing.

Posted by: AWW at February 18, 2004 6:52 AM

A few comments and a wonder:

On the Dems having "their cake and eat it to with a Kerry-Edwards ticket?" Although reminiscent of Reagan-Bush in '80, I am not sure that candidates complement each other so well politically; the differences are in style and in perceptions. A combo may only highlight Kerry's haughtiness and Edwards inexperience (by comparison). More reminiscent of Bush-Quayle.

I agree that there are pros and cons (for Bush) of a longer Dem primary, but I am increasingly convinced that longer may be better because(a) news cycles are shorter and the maximum impact of an attack fusilade may be days or weeks, not months; and (b) I just don't see Bush wanting to do much attacking anyway (too bad), preferring the Dem contenders to do it for him.

As to Viet-Nam, am I the only one who believes that Viet-Nam should not be just a neutral for Kerry among veterans (and many others) since people want to forget, BUT that it should be a huge negative given the scandalous and fraudulent statements he made when he began to fight the political phase of the war? (Reading NR's article on the subject is enough to make me puke.)

Posted by: MG at February 18, 2004 7:43 AM

MG:

Reagan had been governor of CA, Bush director of CIA. What comparable executive experience do Kerry & Edwards have?

Posted by: oj at February 18, 2004 8:52 AM

Edwards can talk to the dead, so he's got that going for him.

Posted by: some random person at February 18, 2004 10:24 AM

oj -

Of course, there is no comparison; thus my hope that Kerry-Edwards combo does not add much to either candidacy alone.

Any thoughts on whethey or why not Kerry's behavior upon his return from Viet-Nam disqualifies him from getting the veteran vote?

Posted by: MG at February 18, 2004 10:37 AM

MG:

There were a bunch of reports yesterday that Kerry is trying to get McAuliffe to shut up about Vietnam because it's hurting him more than W. Supposedly the Fonda/Kerry photos scared the heck out of them.

Posted by: oj at February 18, 2004 10:44 AM

Kerry's Vietnam references don't help him because they're not "real". Oh sure, he was there and he did his job admirably...to most of us. But it also seems that HE didn't think it admirable at the time. So there's a element of "faking it" in his citing of his Vietnam history.

It's kind of like Sammy Sosa always talking about his time with the Rangers.

Posted by: Brandon at February 18, 2004 10:54 AM

Um, I'm not trying to be a stick-in-the-mud, but how exactly does winning Wisconsin scare Kerry? I don't like the man, but I note that he's won all but, what, two primaries? Even when Edwards is close, Edwards doesn't win.

Posted by: Chris at February 18, 2004 1:46 PM

Edwards only got six less WI delegates than Kerry. If Dean endorses gives over all his delegates to Edwards, then Edwards actually won WI.

Posted by: Timothy at February 18, 2004 2:10 PM

Timothy: Right. But that line about beggars and wishes still holds. Or horseshoes and hand grenades. Or whatever. Kerry still holds the lead, and Wisconsin -- where Edwards should have had a better than even shot, all things considered -- still went for Frankenstein.

Posted by: Chris at February 18, 2004 2:41 PM

Don't count the Vets out yet. They're just waiting to see who gets the nomination before they take the (please don't take this literally) shot. There's a lot boiling around the net. What you see on the media are a few blowhards at the bar at the local V.F.W. etc. looking for celebrity. They'll largely sail before any wind.

Posted by: Genecis at February 18, 2004 10:36 PM
« IMPOSING STATEHOOD, AT LAST: | Main | ANOTHER BLOCKBUSTER FROM SCIENCE: »