February 23, 2004
DIE AND LEARN:
Legal Disputes Over Hunt Paralyzed Clinton's Aides (Steve Coll, February 22, 2004, Washington Post)
Clinton's covert policy against bin Laden pursued two goals at the same time. He ordered submarines equipped with cruise missiles to patrol secretly in waters off Pakistan in the hope that CIA spotters would one day identify bin Laden's location confidently enough to warrant a deadly missile strike.But Clinton also authorized the CIA to carry out operations that legally required the agency's officers to plan in almost every instance to capture bin Laden alive and bring him to the United States to face trial.
This meant the CIA officers had to arrange in advance for detention facilities, extraction flights and other contingencies -- even if they expected that bin Laden would probably die in the arrest attempt. These requirements made operational planning much more cumbersome, the CIA officers contended.
In fashioning this sensitive policy in the midst of an impeachment crisis that lasted into early 1999, Clinton's national security adviser, Samuel R. "Sandy" Berger, struggled to forge a consensus within the White House national security team. Among other things, he had to keep on board a skeptical Attorney General Janet Reno and her Justice Department colleagues, who were deeply invested in law enforcement approaches to terrorism, according to senior officials involved.
As the months passed, Clinton signed new memos in which the language, while still ambiguous, made the use of lethal force by the CIA's Afghan agents more likely, according to officials involved. At first the CIA was permitted to use lethal force only in the course of a legitimate attempt to make an arrest. Later the memos allowed for a pure lethal attack if an arrest was not possible. Still, the CIA was required to plan all its agent missions with an arrest in mind.
Some CIA managers chafed at the White House instructions. The CIA received "no written word nor verbal order to conduct a lethal action" against bin Laden before Sept. 11, one official involved recalled. "The objective was to render this guy to law enforcement." In these operations, the CIA had to recruit agents "to grab [bin Laden] and bring him to a secure place where we can turn him over to the FBI. . . . If they had said 'lethal action' it would have been a whole different kettle of fish, and much easier."
Berger later recalled his frustration about this hidden debate. Referring to the military option in the two-track policy, he said at a 2002 congressional hearing: "It was no question, the cruise missiles were not trying to capture him. They were not law enforcement techniques."
The overriding trouble was, whether they arrested bin Laden or killed him, they first had to find him.
Flawed Ally Was Hunt's Best Hope: Afghan Guerrilla, U.S. Shared Enemy (Steve Coll, February 23, 2004, Washington Post)
Members of the Bush Cabinet met at the White House on Sept. 4. Before them was a draft copy of a National Security Presidential Directive, a classified memo outlining a new U.S. policy toward al Qaeda, Afghanistan and Massoud.It had been many months in the drafting. The Bush administration's senior national security team had not begun to focus on al Qaeda until April, about three months after taking office. They did not forge a policy approach until July. Then they took still more weeks to schedule a meeting to ratify their plans.
Among other things, the draft document revived almost in its entirety the CIA plan to aid Massoud that had been forwarded to the lame-duck Clinton White House -- and rejected -- nine months earlier. The stated goal of the draft was to eliminate bin Laden and his organization. The plan called for the CIA to supply Massoud with a large but undetermined sum for covert action to support his war against the Taliban, as well as trucks, uniforms, ammunition, mortars, helicopters and other equipment. The Bush Cabinet approved this part of the draft document.
Other aspects of the Bush administration's al Qaeda policy, such as its approach to the use of armed Predator surveillance drones for the hunt, remained unresolved after the Sept. 4 debate. But on Massoud, the CIA was told that it could at least start the paperwork for a new covert policy -- the first in a decade that sought to influence the course of the Afghan war.
In the Panjshir Valley, unaware of these developments, Massoud read Persian poetry in his bungalow in the early hours of Sept. 9. Later that morning he finally decided to grant an interview to the two Arab journalists visiting from Kabul.
As one of them set up a television camera, the other read aloud a list of questions he intended to ask. About half of them concerned bin Laden.
A bomb secretly packed in the television equipment ripped the cameraman's body apart. It shattered the room's windows, seared the walls in flame and tore Massoud's chest with shrapnel.
Hours later, after Massoud had been evacuated to Tajikistan, his intelligence aide Amrullah Saleh called the CIA's Counterterrorist Center. He spoke to Rich, the bin Laden unit chief. Saleh was sobbing and heaving between sentences as he explained what had happened.
"Where's Massoud?" the CIA officer asked.
"He's in the refrigerator," said Saleh, searching for the English word for morgue.
Massoud was dead, but members of his inner circle had barely absorbed the news. They were all in shock. They were also trying to strategize in a hurry. They had already put out a false story claiming that Massoud had only been wounded. Meanwhile, Saleh told the Counterterrorist Center, the suddenly leaderless Northern Alliance needed the CIA's help as it prepared to confront al Qaeda and the Taliban.
On the morning of Sept. 10, the CIA's daily classified briefings to Bush, his Cabinet and other policymakers reported on Massoud's death and analyzed the consequences for the United States' covert war against al Qaeda.
'This is war,' Rumsfeld told Bush an excerpt from Rumsfeld's War by Rowan Scarborough (Washington Times, 2/23/04)
Donald H. Rumsfeld sat in a vault-like room studded with video screens and talked with President Bush as the Pentagon burned."This is not a criminal action," the secretary of defense told Bush over a secure line. "This is war."
The word "war" meant more than going after the al Qaeda terrorist network in Afghanistan, the fault line of terrorism. Bush said he wanted retaliation.
The setting was the Pentagon's Executive Support Center, where Rumsfeld held secure video teleconferences with the White House across the Potomac or with ground commanders 10,000 miles away.
The time was 1:02 p.m., less than four hours after terrorists steered American Flight 77 into the Pentagon's southwest wall.
Rumsfeld at first had dashed to the impact site. In his shirt and tie, he helped transport the wounded.
Finally convinced to leave the scene, Rumsfeld entered the closely guarded ESC, where whiffs of burned rubble penetrated the ventilation system. The video monitor in front of him was blank, but there was an audio connection with the president at Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana.
Rumsfeld's instant declaration of war, previously unreported, took America from the Clinton administration's view that terrorism was a criminal matter to the Bush administration's view that terrorism was a global enemy to be destroyed.
"That was really a breakthrough strategically and intellectually," recalls Douglas Feith, undersecretary of defense for policy. "Viewing the 9/11 attacks as a war that required a war strategy was a very big thought, and a lot flowed from that."
Rumsfeld wanted a war that was fought with ruthless efficiency: special forces, high-tech firepower, a scorecard for killing or capturing terrorists. He had no desire to become the world's jailer. And he refused to be stymied by bureaucracy.
Rumsfeld quickly shared his views in a meeting of his inner circle, the so-called Round Table group including Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz and the chairman and vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
This would be a global war, Rumsfeld said, and he planned to give Special Operations forces -- Delta Force, SEALs and Green Berets -- unprecedented powers to kill terrorists.
In retrospect it seems obvious that we were at war with al Qaeda all along. But there also seems little point in castigating Bill Clinton or George Bush for not pursuing a policy that we'd not have tolerated had they tried it. The country's barely on board now for the pursuit of a war strategy--imagine trying to sell us on it in the booming 90s? Posted by Orrin Judd at February 23, 2004 3:05 PM
3,000 died that others may fight..... and live.
Posted by: Andrew X at February 23, 2004 3:24 PMNaked self-interest alone should have compelled the Clinton administration to act - and bringing in the DOJ was a huge mistake. But Bill was always more afraid of Janet Reno than of Osama bin Laden.
Posted by: ratbert at February 23, 2004 4:02 PMHalf the country is barely on board because the president blew it. I admit the media really has not helped but it is his and his administrations fault. They should have been out there educating the public about why and whom we fight. That is the biggest mistake this president has made and it inexcusable. If even 25% more of the American public knew as much as the average blog reader does about what really is going on outside our boarders it would not only help him but help this nation. I really hope he spends that 100 million he has for his re-election on educating the public on what this war is all about and how much it means not only for this country but for all of Western Civilization. It just seems sometimes they want it that way, where no one is paying attention. I have said it here before; no war has been won the way we are fighting this one.
Posted by: BJW at February 23, 2004 4:21 PMI agree with OJ's comment, and I never considered it fruitful, politically or otherwise to criticize Clinton in these matters, however there is a special feeling I have for Carter who seems to have gone out of his way to embolden every terrorist, communist revolutionary, or generally any *sshole in the world. His bungling in Iran set off much of what we see today. Not too mention his stabbing Somoza in the back in Nicarauga. Don't ask me how he screwed up Afghanistan, but he probably did that too.
Posted by: h-man at February 23, 2004 4:32 PMI remember after hearing about the original embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania and thought, "This means war." But no one - no one - that I heard in the media, at work, school, politicians from any party - acted like it was or even said it. One can claim that there was a lack of leadership to galvanize the country into responding that way, but it's a criticism of both parties, and more importantly, likely not to have convinced the American people.
Posted by: Chris Durnell at February 23, 2004 4:40 PMI think we are protesting too much. I do not think there are too many who oposed then or oppose now the dismantling of Al Qaeda University in Afghanistan whether the Taliban allowed it or not. This Bush did, and Clinton did not. This Bush did inspite of the risks, at very little cost of any kind, and so expediently yet smoothly that the usual nay sayers (and there were many) could not get organized quickly enough. The probability that Bush would have executed all or much of this strategy without a 9/11 was greater than zero; and given the cumulation of attacks Clinton endured, the probability would have been significantly greateer than (clinton's) zero. Everybody wants to give Clinton a pass by suggesting how hard going to war would have been? Well, OK, but what about going to the UN to build multilateral consensus for a "surrender Osama or surrender power" resolttion, even if likely not to have gotten anywhere? He did not even do that.
Posted by: MG at February 23, 2004 4:42 PMChris:
In fact, it is a criticism of the American people.
Posted by: oj at February 23, 2004 5:29 PM
C'mon, this is Bill Clinton we're talking about here, he got away with committing perjury about his affair because the people liked him and liked the job he did with the economy. The GOP hated his "wag the dog" attitude but were largely silent on it, following the traditional rule that all politics stop at the water's edge (a courtesy the dems in Congress have Denied Bush BTW) the criticism largely came from right wing pundits and was largely ignored. If Bill could get away with his nakedly opportunistic one day impeachment vote bombings, he would have been able to convince people that a war on AlQ was necessary. It would have helped because it would have been true, and the liberal press wouldn't have ripped him for it any more than they did his signing of welfare reform or executing a retarded man. Clinton could have created the legacy he always dreamed of if he listened to Dick Morris and went after AlQ the way Bush is now, and it would have prevented 9-11, guaranteed a Gore victory and made the world a better place. Instead he did the selfish thing instead of the right thing and ended up failing at both.
Mark:
Absent 9-11 Osama, the Taliban, and Saddam would still be livin' large.
Posted by: oj at February 23, 2004 8:32 PMClinton could have, should have, used several occassions during his administration to declare war on ObL & A'Q, certainly the Embassy bombings and the attack on the Cole (Remember the Maine?) provided appropriate occassions. That he did not do so represents one of the greatest failures of any president in American history.
"Half the country is barely on board because the president blew it."
BJW. Breathe Deeply. Trust in the enormous good sense of the American people. The election will be held in November and no member of the Chattering Classes will be awarded more than one vote.
Posted by: Robert Schwartz at February 23, 2004 9:08 PMClinton was one who hoarded his poll numbers like gold, and from a position of ultimate power in the White House, would not have been willing to gamble the loss of those numbers, especially post-Mogadishu and post-Hillarycare, to fight a war where U.S. forces would have to be continuously in the line of fire. And it's hard to say that without an incident like 9/11, there would be any Republican politicians who would have been willing to put their poll numbers and possible re-election on the line for a threat that could only be presented in abstract to the American public.
That said, there are so many former Clinton Administration staffers right now who appear to want to treat the war on terror as overblown and/or misguided simply due to the occupant in the White House it makes it hard not to want to put their feet to the fire over the inaction between the original WTC bombing two months into Clinton's first term and the end of the administration 94 months later.
Posted by: John at February 23, 2004 10:27 PMJohn:
I think that you're right; Mogadishu is the key to understanding Clinton's foreign policy. (What there was of it).
Even when he decided to act militarily, in the Balkans, he publicly stated before the first bomb fell that NO ground troops would be used, which of course prolonged the conflict.
oj says: "Absent 9-11 Osama, the Taliban, and Saddam would still be livin' large."
Difficult to disprove an unfalsifiable claim, but I would suggest that:
Given no 9/11, but an extrapolation of Al Qaeda/Saddam misbehavior, the probability of them being removed by W would always have been higher than by Clinton. More telling, that oj may think that continues to demomstrate how "critical analysis/speculation" always ends up short-changing W: he was either a neocon war monger who had this whole thing planned well before 9/11; or a pragmatic Clintonian who did nothing more than 9/11 would have demanded.
Posted by: MG at February 24, 2004 7:52 AMMichael:
Mogadishu also seems to be key to understanding 9-11 and even Saddam. These guys seem bewildered that we aren't cutting and running again. They failed to appreciate the difference between the Mog and the Big Apple.
Posted by: oj at February 24, 2004 8:33 AMCLinton could have gotten America behind a routing of Al Qaida without 9-11, but he chose not to because he wasn't interested in fighting America's enemies, only to use them to distract from his own misdeeds.
Posted by: MarkD at February 24, 2004 8:26 PMSo far, I'm the only one who thinks the Chinese attack on an American naval plane was an act of war.
Bush rewarded China with $3 million cash and spitshined boots.
How is that reaction different from Clinton's?
Posted by: Harry Eagar at February 25, 2004 12:31 AMSo was spying on them. But you're right--we should have just fired the missiles.
Posted by: oj at February 25, 2004 12:54 AMIf spying were an act of war, everybody would be at war with everybody else all the time.
Posted by: Harry Eagar at February 25, 2004 1:42 PMNow you're talkin'!
But it is kind of bad form to whine when you get busted.
Posted by: oj at February 25, 2004 5:49 PM