BIG O:

Next stop Lebanon?: The “war on terror” faces problems in its Iraqi and Afghan theatres. Pakistan is a gnawing worry, Syria an irritation, for United States planners. Their possible response? Widen the battlefield. (Paul Rogers, 2/05/2004, Open Democracy)

The resurgence of Taliban activity across the border in Afghanistan is fuelling US military plans for a major spring offensive that could extend to military action in Pakistan too.

If approved, this plan would, according to the Chicago Tribune (28 January 2004), involve US intelligence officers in Pakistan preparing a coordinated military operation involving army rangers, special operations forces and other ground troops supported by air power coming partly from an aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea.

Such an extension of the war would be highly controversial within Pakistan. It comes at a time of real US concern over the survival of President Musharraf and his government. It is also part of a wider policy of the Pentagon to expand its force projection.

In recent weeks, US forces in Iraq close to the Syrian border have been increased. A number of instances have occurred of special forces operating in Syrian territory and of US planes penetrating Syrian air space. In one case, reports Jane’s Intelligence Digest (23 January 2004), Iraqi insurgents were pursued across the border in an operation that killed more than twenty people, including some Syrians.

There are indications that Donald Rumsfeld may be planning to order attacks on paramilitary bases in Somalia and the Bekaa valley in Lebanon. The former would entail an escalation of current special forces actions in Somalia, but extending the “war on terror” to Lebanon would involve even closer collaboration with Israel and raise the prospect of a direct confrontation with the Syrian army that still occupies parts of the country.

Such an operation may seem unlikely, not least because of its regional consequences, but it would be unwise to underestimate the commitment of people like Rumsfeld and his deputy Paul Wolfowitz to a vigorous pursuit of their war.

In this light, and given the nature of the Bush administration, the option of rethinking the very nature of the war is simply not possible. Instead, reversals require an even stronger commitment of force. It is quite possible that US military action will spread to further countries in the coming months.

Like the man says: "We'll do everything in our power to defend the homeland. Yet, we understand this, that the best way to defend the homeland is to stay on the offensive."

Posted by Orrin Judd at February 6, 2004 10:35 AM