ALTERING THE POSSIBLE:

The Emptying of Russia (Nicholas Eberstadt, February 13, 2004, washingtonpost.com)

Population trends and demographic characteristics in Russia today are severely -- and adversely -- altering the realm of the possible for that country and its people. Russian social conditions, economic potential, military power and international influence are all affected, and the situation stands only to worsen.

Russia is at the brink of a steep demographic decline -- a peacetime population hemorrhage framed by a collapse and a catastrophic surge, respectively, in the birth and death rates. The forces that have shaped this path of depopulation and debilitation are powerful and by now deeply rooted in Russian soil. Altering this demographic trajectory would be a formidable task under any circumstances. Unfortunately, neither Russia's political leadership nor its voting public have begun to face up to this enormous challenge.

On New Year's Day 1992 -- one week after the dissolution of the Soviet Union -- Russia's population was estimated at 148.7 million. As of mid-2003, according to the Russian State Statistics Committee, the Russian Federation's population was 144.5 million. This was by no means the only population loss recorded by any country during that period. According to estimates and projections by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, more than a dozen states experienced a population decline between midyear 1992 and midyear 2003, 10 of these amounting to drops greater than Russia's 3.1 percent. But unlike some of these drops -- e.g. Bosnia's -- Russia's could not be explained in terms of war and violent upheaval. In other places, population decline was due entirely to emigration. Russia, by contrast, absorbed a substantial net influx of migrants during those years -- a total net addition of more than 5.5 million.

Moreover, continuing population decline -- at a decidedly faster tempo -- is envisioned for Russia as far as demographers care to project into the future. The only question is how steep the downward path will be. [...]

In the decades immediately ahead, Russia seems likely to contend with a sharp falloff in its youth population. Between 1975 and 2000, the number of young men ages 15 to 24 ranged between 10 million and 13 million. By 2025, on current U.N. projections, the total will be barely 6 million. Apart from the obvious military implications of this decline, there would be economic and social reverberations. With fewer young people rising to replace the older retirees graduating from the Russian workforce, the question of improving (or perhaps maintaining) the average level of skills and qualifications in the economically active population would become that much more pressing. And since younger people the world over tend to be disposed toward and associated with certain kinds of discovery, innovation and entrepreneurial risk-taking, a pronounced choking off of younger blood could have real consequences for Russia's social capabilities and economic responsiveness.

To the extent that Russian policymakers have concerned themselves with the country's negative natural increase problem, they have focused almost entirely on the birthrate -- and how to raise it. Not surprisingly, this pro-natalist impulse has foundered on the shoals of finance. In plain terms, raising the birthrate is an expensive business: especially when the potential parents are educated, urbanized women accustomed to paying careers. To induce a serious and sustained increase in childbearing, a government under such circumstances must be prepared to get into the business of hiring women to be mothers -- and this is a proposition that could make the funding of a national pension system look like pin money.

Meanwhile, Russian policy circles persist in treating the country's horrendous mortality rate with an insouciance verging on indifference.

What's surprising is not that the secular West is dying, but that it's so indifferent, even eager seeming, for that death. Thenm again, if a people believes in nothing it has only Darwinian survival instincts to fall back on, and we see how much good they are.

Posted by Orrin Judd at February 15, 2004 8:41 AM